By Chuar Juet Jock,
Feb 02, 2016(Nyamilepedia) —- The JMEC , IGAD and the international community are telling us that, luxuries like the row of 28 states and the constitution drafting, review and enactment can wait and that the real issue within months if not weeks is whether for South Sudan to be or not to be. The country is at the edge of collapse, the economy is at worst as floating the SS Pound against the dollar has drained the few financial resources the ordinary South Sudanese has in their limited accounts. Hunger and malnutrition are consuming our children, women and elderly on daily basis, the political wrangling between our two main fierce rivals of the SPLM and their die-hard supporters seem to have no end at sight. The country is already running on the wheels of 28 states. Mr. Machar is now on the 10 states while his movement is based on 21 states.
What is important now, in the opinion of those who has the true sad big picture of South Sudan is not those technical issues rather than a quick rescue to the country itself and its suffering people. This emergency rescue, in the opinion of JMEC, IGAD and Torika is what the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) should be about regardless of the partisan wrangling and concerns and in which the country is slipping into abyss and chaos within the very watch of its leaders. The Chairman of JMEC, a former president and an economist by profession has already alerted us about the grim situation ahead and whether we believe it or not, let us recall similar warnings that has been issued by several concerned leaders like Dr. Lam Akol and concerned citizens in which my person was one, that it is just about time until the floating of dollar will bring this country down to its knee, it seem like it is happening.
Well the fate of 28 states and the constitution are not luxuries and we are with the leadership of the SPLM-IO in its serious concerns and rejection of formation of the TGoNU based on the 28 states and before the transitional constitution could be in place. First; because the degrading and scaling down of the agreement by the government has started as process and it is going in consistent manner to void the whole agreement in no time. If the leadership of SPLM has accepted the formation of TGoNU based on 28 states, than it did declared its on death since the movement may witness a split and disintegration within its political and military ranks leave alone its strategic allies such as Johnson Olouny of Agulek, the Shilluk based faction, whose lands are said to be annexed by the 28 states decree to other communities’. Agulek and several others may not accept anything less than the total dismantling of the 28 states and accordingly Mr. Machar won’t commit such a political and military suicide for the sake of uncertain future. Kiir and base, at their top of the game, may dump everyone right after the possible breakdown of SPLM-IO and the road back may never be the same and smooth, that’s the game and it is likely.
What could happen after the formation of the TGoNU based on 28 states and before having a transitional constitution that may lays the roadmap of such a government? Well, if the TGoNU is formed on that ground, obviously, for the SPLM-IO this could mean a full surrender because anything after that cannot be guaranteed, the process of derailing the agreement seem to have no end until it is all done. In the short run, the movement could lost control on its own members within government of Kiir. Remember, while suggesting the formation of TGoNU, the JMEC, IGAD and Torika has proven to be toothless in face of Kiir’s consistent defiance and many violations to the agreement and hence it has no credibility that an effective accountability apart from the SPLM-IO own guarantees can ever emerge after TGoNU formation and should Mr. Salva go wild in future, it is high likely he will.
Two realistic options are left to SPLM-IO, a total rejection of the formation of TGoNU based on the 28 states and before the constitution drafting, review and enactment. This will save the SPLM-IO and keep it intact and also this stance may hurt the Kiir’s administration in the long run. How Mr. Kiir will survive the current economic woes, insecurity in Equatoria, the potential expansion of the military opposition among others is still yet unfolded puzzle.
If the SPLM-IO decided to override such a prerequisite conditions and concerns, placing the cart before the horse again as it did in the case of advance team and decided to join the TGoNU based on benefit of the doubt, hopes and other reasons known best to its leadership, than a new dawn may emerge in which Kiir may use it fully to consolidate himself or maybe the two SPLM factions may get along and make TGoNU the start of bringing the country to normalcy or at worse a disruption to the whole process may happen with TGoNU that could bring us back to the bloody square one. Well, all are predictable and as we have seen, South Sudan road back to normalcy, peace and stability is no easy one and hence, courage and decisive leadership is surely needed.
Chuar Juet Jock is a South Sudanese entrepreneur and PhD candidate based in Omaha, Nebraska – United States. He has authored his new book “In a Nutshell: Opinions and Articles during South Sudanese Civil War (2013 -2016)”, a powerful truth that has been injected into the body of South Sudan’s history, it unearthed the truth of the current since it started on December 15, 2013 up to this month. The book is available at Amazon.com and other online bookstores. The author can be reached through firstname.lastname@example.org.
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