Analyses Contributor's Peace Process South Sudan

The SPLM-IO Needs A Strategy Of First Things First In Dealing With Mr. Kiir And Here Are The Reasons:

By Chuar Juet Jock,

President Salva Kiir Mayardit and Former Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon (Photo: supplied).
President Salva Kiir Mayardit (left) and Former Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon (right) (Photo: supplied).

Feb 02, 2016(Nyamilepedia) —- The JMEC , IGAD and the international community are telling us that, luxuries like the row of 28 states and the constitution drafting, review and enactment can wait and that the real issue within months if not weeks is whether for South Sudan to be or not to be. The country is at the edge of collapse, the economy is at worst as floating the SS Pound against the dollar has drained the few financial resources the ordinary South Sudanese has in their limited accounts. Hunger and malnutrition are consuming our children, women and elderly on daily basis, the political wrangling between our two main fierce rivals of the SPLM and their die-hard supporters seem to have no end at sight. The country is already running on the wheels of 28 states. Mr. Machar is now on the 10 states while his movement is based on 21 states.

What is important now, in the opinion of those who has the true sad big picture of South Sudan is not those technical issues rather than a quick rescue to the country itself and its suffering people. This emergency rescue, in the opinion of JMEC, IGAD and Torika is what the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) should be about regardless of the partisan wrangling and concerns and in which the country is slipping into abyss and chaos within the very watch of its leaders. The Chairman of JMEC, a former president and an economist by profession has already alerted us about the grim situation ahead and whether we believe it or not, let us recall similar warnings that has been issued by several concerned leaders like Dr. Lam Akol and concerned citizens in which my person was one, that it is just about time until the floating of dollar will bring this country down to its knee, it seem like it is happening.

Well the fate of 28 states and the constitution are not luxuries and we are with the leadership of the SPLM-IO in its serious concerns and rejection of formation of the TGoNU based on the 28 states and before the transitional constitution could be in place. First; because the degrading and scaling down of the agreement by the government has started as process and it is going in consistent manner to void the whole agreement in no time. If the leadership of SPLM has accepted the formation of TGoNU based on 28 states, than it did declared its on death since the movement may witness a split and disintegration within its political and military ranks leave alone its strategic allies such as Johnson Olouny of Agulek, the Shilluk based faction, whose lands are said to be annexed by the 28 states decree to other communities’. Agulek and several others may not accept anything less than the total dismantling of the 28 states and accordingly Mr. Machar won’t commit such a political and military suicide for the sake of uncertain future. Kiir and base, at their top of the game, may dump everyone right after the possible breakdown of SPLM-IO and the road back may never be the same and smooth, that’s the game and it is likely.

What could happen after the formation of the TGoNU based on 28 states and before having a transitional constitution that may lays the roadmap of such a government? Well, if the TGoNU is formed on that ground, obviously, for the SPLM-IO this could mean a full surrender because anything after that cannot be guaranteed, the process of derailing the agreement seem to have no end until it is all done. In the short run, the movement could lost control on its own members within government of Kiir. Remember, while suggesting the formation of TGoNU, the JMEC, IGAD and Torika has proven to be toothless in face of Kiir’s consistent defiance and many violations to the agreement and hence it has no credibility that an effective accountability apart from the SPLM-IO own guarantees can ever emerge after TGoNU formation and should Mr. Salva go wild in future, it is high likely he will.

Two realistic options are left to SPLM-IO, a total rejection of the formation of TGoNU based on the 28 states and before the constitution drafting, review and enactment. This will save the SPLM-IO and keep it intact and also this stance may hurt the Kiir’s administration in the long run. How Mr. Kiir will survive the current economic woes, insecurity in Equatoria, the potential expansion of the military opposition among others is still yet unfolded puzzle.

If the SPLM-IO decided to override such a prerequisite conditions and concerns, placing the cart before the horse again as it did in the case of advance team and decided to join the TGoNU based on benefit of the doubt, hopes and other reasons known best to its leadership, than a new dawn may emerge in which Kiir may use it fully to consolidate himself or maybe the two SPLM factions may get along and make TGoNU the start of bringing the country to normalcy or at worse a disruption to the whole process may happen with TGoNU that could bring us back to the bloody square one. Well, all are predictable and as we have seen, South Sudan road back to normalcy, peace and stability is no easy one and hence, courage and decisive leadership is surely needed.

Chuar Juet Jock is a South Sudanese entrepreneur and PhD candidate based in Omaha, Nebraska – United States. He has authored his new book “In a Nutshell: Opinions and Articles during South Sudanese Civil War (2013 -2016)”, a  powerful truth that has been injected into the body of South Sudan’s history, it unearthed the truth of the current since it started on December 15, 2013 up to this month. The book is available at Amazon.com and other online bookstores. The author can be reached through chuar.juet@gmail.com.

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Peacemaker February 3, 2016 at 1:22 am

You have hit the nail on the head. Bravo!

DINGIT NA TUGGÖ February 3, 2016 at 3:37 pm


this is the fact. Infact it is not only the Shilluk people who want to see the total burial of the 28 tribal states. The whole of GREATER EQUATORIA does not want to hear about these 28 STATES weather in FIGURES or ALPHABETICALLY. The GREATER EQUATORIA balieve the evil 28 states is the worst act of the jenge than the rapping of our women and killing of our people from 1984 until the time our own sons like Thomas Cirilo, Abraham Wana, Samuel Abu John, Mobutu Momur Mete and many others stood firm against this act.

We beared all those worst human rigts acts because we aimed for the liberation of this country. We stood firm hehind Dr. John Garang. As a result of our full support, places like Nimule, Kaya, Meridi, Yambio were never taken by the jalaba when Khartoum announced the whole wipe out of the SPLA in around 1990.

By introducing 28 tribal states this time, we now understood that the jenge want to cement their programme of taking the whole land in and around Juba. Dividing CENTRAL EQUATORIA STATE INTO 3 STATES, is an open policy of LOCKING OUT our WISE LEADERS from MUNDARI, LULU’BÖ, NYANGWARA, POJULU, KUPERA, KUKU and KAKWA from their active participation in the JUBA ADMINISTRATION. Then it will be very easy for the jenge to do what ever they want do with BARI. But they might have forgotten that ALL THESE PEOPLE I mentioned are from ONE FATHER ONE MOTHER. jenge never know the meaning of BARI SPEAKERS. We must teach them by voting them out in the next coming election.

The people of Greater Equatoria have already thrown their support behind Dr. Riak Machar with a high hope that he will champion the call for FEDERAL and we together put it in place as soon as possible. To be honest, 99% of Greater equatoria population will never vote not only for kiir but to any presidental contestor who is known to be a jenge (dinka). There is alot of WINING POLITICAL INGREDIENTS for SPLA/M-IO in standing very firm in rejecting the 28 tribal states. Not only that. The Massacre of civilians in JUBA, WONDURUBA, YAMBIO, MERIDI, the looting of public funds, the nepotism, are some of the nice political ingredients sending the jenge to where their evil dream lies and then that evil dream knows where to take them further to the end of the RIVER NILE.

South Sudan does not need to be ruled by jenge elders, NEVER. We do not want this country to be the same. FEDERAL RULE is the POPULAR DEMAND of the people of this country not the rotten 28 states

Chuar Juet Jock February 4, 2016 at 5:18 pm

I hear you brother. Time is ticking towards the change and with that said, let us stay hopeful

JOHN YOAL CHUOL February 4, 2016 at 7:01 am

you’re on the path jok; the issue of 28 states will cause everlasting war among the people of south Sudan if not revoke not sholluk,

sambalasambala February 6, 2016 at 11:12 pm

I had been making my survey on more than 273 bomas in greater Equotoria on whether they can vote Dinka government of Salva kirr or Vote for Riek Nuer government come elections. Out of 32,760 individuals interviewed, 31,974 said they will die voting for Riek what ever the condition may be. This indicates to me that 97.4 % of Equotoria is already for Riek and 2.6% said they will Vote for SPLM Salva. if this is the case, SPLM juba would need to work hard to win the hearts of the Equotorians but the time seems to be short. I am staunch supporter of SPLM Juba, I know for us to win this ballot war, a lot of strategies need to be laid otherwise it will be a gone case. Our Equotoria leaders in the government did not play their cards well. The leaders appointed by the government are those hated by the communities leaving out their choice. Example people in Yei state were expecting David Juma Augustine to be become their beloved governor but instead they were send a different person who is hated even with the five years olds who knows nothing. We just need to change the rules of the game if we are to survive this wave of change to win our voters back to SPLM Juba.


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