By Deng Vanang,
Oct 25, 2016(Nyamilepedia) —– The treats I brought along with me from UNMISS Campsite in Juba since the conflict broke out on 8th July are numerous, humorous and analytically insightful.
First among them is the fact that SPLM/A-IO’s never say die leader, Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon has so far summersaulted back to the torturous bushes in South Sudan and far beyond.
He all owed this bountiful blessing to the dark caves, deep valleys and dense equatorial rainforest, coupled with skillful diplomacy to safely and respectively reach neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo and now old enemy, Sudan.
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This ordeal is not unique for the historians and neither first time for the veteran guerrilla leader to find himself in the strange kingdom infested by roaring animals and singing birds.
Since he is by and large the rebellious child for a third time ever since in 1991 to what many South Sudanese currently regard as Kiir’s fascist kleptocracy fighting tooth and nail for unwanted existence in Juba.
With too many a question arising as to how long should he continue being chased out of town and on the endless run after feeding his children to Kiir, the devouring lion?
To the question, some concerned citizens offered an answer for him. He should simply set up a foolproof strategy to insure himself against such repeated helplessness and embarrassments in so popping eyeballs of the bewildering world.
Seemingly that is not an answer to his monotony of running around in circle. Machar is now combing through foreign capitals and literally begging to be returned to Juba where he will reclaim his crown he lost to his former ally, Taban Deng Gai.
That crown is the First Vice Presidency Taban tenaciously holds with all his life. But what is in this old, battered and blood stained crown that is worth the fight? Seems the question so many dare ask anyway.
It is the hidden jewel in it. Which is nothing but a return to Juba so as to evade paradoxically purposed sanctions on him for rightfully defending self, quipped the critics.
Myriad of threatened sanctions by United States and regional governments include assets freeze, ICC court case and worldwide travel bands against him.
That is should he not return and save non-existing peace agreement. Not only at his expense, but also to extend Kiir’s insatiable Presidential term limits.
These are some of the luxuries he most treasures amidst the suffering of his Nuer and other South Sudanese fanatic supporters, who alike government elite, hate with fashion his idea of returning.
Should he attempt, most of his fire-breathing supporters will receive him with bouquet full of piercing thorns than blooming flowers.
While feigned smiles and forced handshakes from the government officials shall be the norm other than the exception.
Those mentioned supporters want him return victoriously following Kiir’s removal in a straight fight no matter how high the costs are involved.
And so are his sympathetic critics throwing aspersions at him for always unwittingly mimics a meek lamb that repeatedly returns to where a hyena has severally attempted its slaughter.
Government on the other, wants international community to arrest him and be permanently confined in The Hague.
Although these two choices are hard, he prefers to defy his supporters in Juba and beyond by declaring an intention to get back in a veiled surrender courtesy of purposed regional protection force.
His fear for smart sanctions and dreaded Hague is what always forces him back to Juba’s slaughter house his on and off political ally, Dr. Lam Akol recently offered to ease him of and shoulder at days’ long meetings in Khartoum.
The offer met with an outpouring rejection by his close and resilient army Generals who wanted him become South Sudan’s Head of State come what may. But failed to caution him on the fact that he can’t have life both ways: rebellion and luxury.
Archrival, General Salva Kiir Mayardit is also feeling the heat as the throne is not all that cool. He has finally cried foul in an overdue realization all the sixty-three tribes except his Dinka ethnic group in the new country have marooned him on the hostile island that becomes Juba.
Exactly the same unfavorable spot at which Machar found himself back in 2014 and first half of 2015, put paying to the truth that fighting for a cause never lies in the number, but justice and courage.
With his field Generals silently having conceded defeat in the rebel besieged Yei, Kiir threatened to roll up sleeves and push back himself rebels ferocious advances slowly eating into the town once dubbed small London.
While going full throttle on blaming Equatorian leaders like the Vice President James Wani Igga, Cabinet Affairs Minister, Martin Elia Lomuro and Internal Security Minister, Isaac Mabutu Mamuor Mete for failing to help him out of the tight grips of their rebellious people.
The threesome had their constituencies shifted from beneath their quaky feet to the raging armed opposition’s firepower of one relentless Machar after whose unceremonious departure the country’s already collapsing economy took a long dive into the bottomless pit.
Only consolation for ever lucky Kiir are the threatened sanctions that may hopefully head the cowed Machar back to resuscitate his besieged and moribund government.
Spicing that hope is the already extended technical military assistance from the outgoing President Barrack Obama’s administration in America to hold the shaky ground a bit longer.
The same Obama’s administration departure gives the armed opposition a breather in an expectation of a favorable foreign policy shift from either Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump’s incoming government.
Without an armed opposition considering the fact that the leader, Dr. Riek Machar has ever since 1991 received harsh policy grilling, instead of support from four consecutive American Presidents.
That is from Bush senior to Clinton, Bush Junior to Obama and why it has been the case isn’t being considered for a thorough deliberation by an armed opposition.
While Kiir hinges his survival on Obama other than his demoralized defense forces and ever shrinking political support base at home, Obama won’t teach one Dinka ethnic group’s army the courage to fight the 63 armed and dangerous tribes.
As his three God forsaken fellow comrades from Equatoria together with Taban Deng Gai have already lost home constituencies big time to the rebellion and remained ever since orphaned on his pair of quivering laps in Juba.
Trying to proof up battle – shied Taban for a fight with Machar, Kiir has signed off containment sites he previously denied Machar for none existing pro-Taban SPLA-IO faction.
Ironically such cantonment sites, if set up, shall only expose to the locals and outside world how Taban badly lacks the troops to fight his case.
Not to mention the conscripted recruits expectedly to be way laid and kidnaped on Juba’s largely deserted streets to forcefully feed those would be empty cantonment sites.
That is in addition to a handful of Western Jikany Nuer barefoot villagers that went wild ululating, raving and ranting in mother tongue about how their beloved son, Taban had successfully dethroned from power a world renowned and respected Ph.D. holder, Machar.
The money too, Kiir will lavishly pour onto the war chest at those designated cantonment sites is not expected in any way to tilt the balance in the bloody war fields.
Sadly, instead, shall simply work to provide a bonanza for ever growing and thriving army of warlords in his besieged government, thanks to an all-time high inflation that eats salaries into an instant nothingness.
On the whole, poisonous combination of such expected failures will spectacularly mark the beginning of an end of Taban’s stolen First Vice Presidency from Machar and enough to return him to the dark underbelly of South Sudan’s turbulent politics.
Deng Vanang is a Political scientist, Journalist and Author. Reachable at:firstname.lastname@example.org