Is Machar Getting Himself Defeated In Order To Win? By Deng Vanang

By Deng Vanang,

Dr. Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon meeting Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the Chairperson of Africa union Commission in Addis Ababa(Photo: File)

Dr. Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon meeting Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, the Chairperson of Africa union Commission in Addis Ababa(Photo: File)

August 8, 2015(Nyamilepedia) — Amazing stories never cease as once government-rebels’ over heated war in final stretches is now cooling down to quite diplomacy.

In this, Kiir has successfully lured Machar into getting stuck with proverbial papyrus stick called IGAD – sponsored peace talks as he continues pulling the ground from beneath him.

And while he extends a left hand of cash diplomacy to the IGAD’s member states and the West, he Kiir with the other right hand draws lethal weapons from the East – China and Russia.

All these political maneuvers were capped with him capturing most parts of the oil rich Unity state, thanks to the rebels internal misshapes.

At presence, government is restless in doubling up those successes in organizing ways and means on how to replicate the same feat in both Upper Nile and Jonglei states however are still stubbornly holding out of its clutches.

This string of successive victories has even made peace talks irrelevant for the government to pursue with two more prong-attacks laid in wait.

One is sending legions of spies into these two states in order to cause internal revulsions by both bribing, as alleged, top local community leaders and rebel commanders. Should this tactic prove successful, then would be reconverted communities shall re-direct their guns towards SPLM/A-IO’s top command in their isolated border capital of Pagak and declare their areas pro-government. Nevertheless, this has been tried and tired infiltration strategy that has miserably failed over times as normal tactic of the war by both sides.

What is new and equally dangerous is the strange turn of event that makes rebels their own worst enemies than the government they are fighting to contain. In this case, some frustrated rebels have bought to their own demoralizing and yet still general opinion that they are fighting a losing battle.

This is due to claims and counter claims that they lack arms and ammos denied of having by none other than their Chairman and Commander-in-chief, Dr, Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon. Question pricking their psyche and that of others is why doctor should waste valuable time and energy to save the life of a patient not interested to live.

Literally meaning, trying to fight empty handed to win a war the Commander – in – Chief he is not interested in winning anyway. Though this war is their shared project, Machar as the leader holds the largest lion share.

Many great minds can’t believe this rumor, but what is said over and over again has the notoriety of attaining some status of truth and deserves undue attention it couldn’t have attained in the first place.

To his credit from the very onset of the war, Machar successfully wriggled out of the ringed crime scene {Juba} by Kiir and continuously went on to diplomatically wrest sympathy from most foreign friends allied to Kiir. The two successes have been a great feat so far tied to his belt.

However, suddenly along the truly rough terrains there seems to be some complacency in his current strategy of persecuting the war while shooting himself in the foot against marching forward.

His laxity has incidentally however, encouraged Kiir to grow increasingly arrogant and brutal as he captures one contested territory after another from him while leaving in his wake trails of destruction in terms of innocent civilians killed and their property destroyed. This has however served to enrage the international community now doubling its efforts to end the war sooner than later.

As much as this could prove to be a lethal weapon in his store against Kiir, he could not lose sight of the fact that such strategy has more fatal counterproductive effects on his civilian supporters as well as armed soldiers.

First, it is divisive as equally demoralizing a strategy within his camp denying his soldiers life saving weapons in the face of most brutal enemy on the offensive. This tactic can mistakenly be perceived by his soldiers that their Commander wants them killed than to kill. That brings even some more irritating question into their curious minds. Is the commander for them as his gallant troops or is just another fifth columnist helping out the enemy from within?

If it is fear for worst crimes to be committed in his name should he offer enough weapons and ammunitions to his loyal troops, then his soldiers too deserve even far better protection from him than that he offers to the enemy in ferocious advance. Leave alone the better terms at peace talks he can’t get if he is defeated militarily on the ground, when it is always known in military jargons that if you want peace, then prepare for war.

That is not even logical for someone to just fold his hands on the chest and stand akimbo as he is being beaten to the ground so as to be seen by the world innocent and clean, when international law based on natural justice says clearly every man is entitled to self defense if aggressed.

Machar allowing his people to be killed defenselessly as it happened in juba in 2013 just to please and get sympathy from haplessly on looking international community is even more mindboggling to say the least.

Much more, nothing can gain Machar sympathy from the international community if those killed by Kiir’s goons in Juba could not be enough to gain him some political mileage over Kiir. Besides, it is even more perplexing for him to be chasing after the favorable mirage called sympathy when justice is possibly within his reach.

Again international sympathy is of no use if his people are all dead in exchange for the Presidential election’s win in a future only known to God, let alone the fact that no elections he can win without people, given this Africa where elections are won through ethnic loyalties.

Even the Americans and their Western allies that might ill-advise him to remain mum in order to win never got their current hustling supremacy over the world through internationally organized democratic elections except via ruthlessly winning over Germans and their allies during the two world wars. Which simply tells us might is right and not the other way round.

After winning world wars, they continue to intimidate with weapons of mass destruction those trying to challenge their brutal might. Sadam Hussein, Muahamar Gadhafi and more went down the drains when trying to challenge the ruthless might of America and its allies.

This is in addition to 1991’s shilling experience which is still too fresh to forget when America and its Western allies tempted him to stage a coup against Communist Garang. Even before they could provide him with weapons necessary not only did they change their minds and stand with Garang, but forced him to rejoin Garang.

Similarly, in January, 2014 it is the same America that instructed Museveni with poisonous cluster bombs to stop his advance on Juba lest more important people than the Nuers would be killed in revenge killings if he entered the city; which is inferentially meant, Nuer’s enemies are Americans’ friends.

This also means America doesn’t want him to take over Juba so that Kiir remains in power. Nothing can say it better than what American Secretary of States, John Kerry summed up in his statement when he touched down at Juba’s International Airport last year to the effect that: he is not Kiir’s equivalence as democratically elected President.

Which made everybody that knows democracy and its tenets wonder as to why a President can remain legitimate even when he goes on rampage killing discriminately against his own people? If Obama himself happened to do it in America, he could immediately lose Presidency and get himself arranged before competent court of law for abuse of office and mass murders. He could go home if court proves that he did the crime because he is insane or rots in jail for life if his criminal act is intentional.

If history has any meaning, our local history clearly stated that when his forces committed killings in Bor against the Dinka in 1991, it is what made America to abandon him. Be that the case, he should ask himself and Americans, why is it different with Kiir this time around?

Given the current IGAD plus’ peace proposal, despite Kiir having been locally and internationally held primarily responsible for violence and massacres that came with it, he is now given back the Presidency with all the privileges of appointing and relieving his enemies including Machar himself. That entire story shows no justice in Americans who play double standards as his advisors and at the same time enemy fighting him and his people ever since 1991.

Such valuable information as narrated above should be more than enough to jolt Dr. Machar together with his inner political sanctum, now found between the rock of the West and a hard place of the East, to think of an alternative foreign policy strategy before getting squeezed flat and straight on the ground into nothingness of history.

Deng Vanang is Journalist and author to be reached at:dvanang@yahoo.com

5 comments

  • Lualdit

    Deng Vanang,
    Greeting to you my brother. What you narrated is exactly what’s making Gat machar an incapable leader that he should be. There better be a peace deal sign come August 17th, other wise the prospect on his leadership will be in danger on the rebels camp. The man succumb so easily to pressure to the point of losing sight of the movement mission and goal. Look at what transpired and continuing in Unity state. The suffering of the civilians just because the movement was defeated. That can’t make him bold and free the population that are starve to death in the Swamp? Instead of dismissing general with different views, he should be persuading them. Calling the movement splm- in o to begin with, was a sign of one man selfishness. Is everyone in the movement splm? Gat machar this time will pay the prize if he is not careful.

  • I think this is the time for realization special for those supporters of rebellion, the former vice president Dr. Riek Machar had betraying his own people for very long time but if you try to educated some of Nuers people then, they never gets it because they believe their Son is doing right thing which is wrong concept. If the former vice president was smart as he claimed then, he would have avoid any violence in the name of his political interest unfortunately, he has been supporting wars and that puts Dinkas and Nuers in to hateful position on each other.

    It is true that, the former vice president belief his brother in-law will bring him to power on the other hand he think his own tribal Militias will handle power to him by force this is why most of Nuers Militias generals blamed him for not arming them enough to get ride off Dinkas or government but they failed to acknowledge that, the power which a politician seeking through war is not easy one because it cost lives, the civilians properties are destroying or destruction, the suffering of innocents civilians and it also take time to achieved your goal as the signing of CPA after a period of 21st years is a good example for former vice president to learn.. The Idea that one tribe will bring their Son to power is not very wise one instead the former vice president should have run a none violence policy and shown he would reunited both Nuer tribe and Dinkas as well as others Southern Sudanese people. It is also true that, the power in the hand of people even if his brothers in-law successful defeating the current government in South Sudan yet, he will still faces so many problems more than president Salva Kiir because the majority of Southern Sudanese people are doubting his ability for why he is supporting violence twice.

    In short, although the author was trying to cover up the former vice president and blaming the currently leadership in Juba’s government thus, both rebel leader and president Salva Kiir are in the same boat, both leaders are responsible for what happened in Juba, both leaders are power struggle there is no doubt on that and they have failed since they started leadership. To talk about Addis Ababa’s peace agreement in fact that, any peace held in the city of Ethiopia is always hopeless for Sudanese people, because there are some Southern Sudanese traditional beliefs strongly that, the Ethiopia Capital city was not bless in the first place even some African leaders have been trying so hard to end this conflict in another country in East Africa than Ethiopia city unfortunately, the rebel leader had been consistently repeating over and over again that, he would only signed the Addis Ababa peace rather than the one that was supposedly to landing him easily in Juba when the SPLM Re-conciliation and Reunification was agrees both sides. I think the rebel leader has to blame himself if the Addis Ababa failed completely because he refused to considering the Tanzanian Reunitfication and Re-conciliation saying, he will not just going back to Juba while he has the army but he failed to acknowledge that, the late Paulino Matip Nhial made agreement with this president Salva Kiir Mayardit while, he had about 50,000 Militias and 500 ranks Officers but anyway thank for realizing.

  • Albino Kosti

    Dr. Riek Machar, has defeated Kiir Mayardit, and his government by firing lethal weapon without sound neither smoke, politic.

  • chuolkhan

    Your statement is very clear and thanks for that truly Machar some time he look after western world community their ideas for the resolution so when you look at it is some how good but his generals say no just war should be continues because they know what is going on to the government of kiir as well as we really familiars about their tactic that they don,t like such of proposal base on sharing power and two army forces should not be function in our country they said that is why those of generals from spla/iom try to say yes for war addition to that the percentage to greater Upper Nile according to government their interest is not allow to be given this greater upper nile such of percentages so from there Machar he has right to accept the proposal which was imposed by other communities both western and Africans peace makers to bring peace in our youngest nation .All at all when we come to the ground forces Machar is not defeated even- in the political used. Machar is very honest to gain any kinds of peace to solve the 20 Months war with in nation by peace otherwise when the government will still in their position like to say there is no peace agreement okay both IGAD and other countries who put their tension to our situation will used what every they like to do so thanks Vanang Deng Nyang

  • chuolkhan

    Machar is not defeated but he is worried about his people who over loaded with suffer addition to that Machar is fought with some Africans countries who were involved since from the violent has started up to now they are still on their deals with KIir Secondly :Machar fought with other western world countries in political and by using weapons given to government and there is no ways to defeat him up to date. So Machar he try his best to bring peace in our country through peace talks not in bullets solution to be honest on my answer is that .Okay if Machar is serious to used any kinds of deals like what Kiir has been used every one in South Sudan could not talks to day and our nation turn to dust on earth but Machar he believe on Western World constitution and other Africans leaders that is why other thinks that Machar is weak in his revolutionary but not like that to use such of political issues is because the war is WIN-WIN SOLUTION some other countries with in Africans forces were involved deeply if they are not there to supported Kiir I think very obviously that Machar should win the war so Machar he won all games we played let us hope that Libya problem is on the door wait. So let considered that Machar has win by all means to me thanks.
    Vanang Deng Nyang