By Hon. Gabriel Changson Chang
Chairman and C-in-C of FDP/SSAF
August 2, 2016(Nyamilepedia) —– We refer you to FDP/SSAF predictions on the ARCISS Implementation process on the 10th February 2016 and the full text is here below.
The Peace agreement signed on 17th and 26th August 2015 by Dr. Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir in Addis Ababa and Juba respectively was born crippled with many problems on the days of its signatures which can be narrated as follows.
- Hand written alternations by Dr. Riek and Pagan Amum on the 17th of August 2015.
- President Kiir signed on the 26th of August 2015 with the bunch of reservations and alternations.
- The political parties did not append their signatures on the agreement.
- The signatories did not exchange the documents they signed because they were torn apart by the distance between Addis Ababa and Juba where they appended their signatures. Though the IGAD-Plus mediation was not bothered by these discrepancies, many observers including FDP/SSAF were concerned about the legality of such an agreement. It is no wonder that the implementation process has become problematic and as a result, the formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGONU) that was supposed to be formed three months after signing an agreement has been delayed for more than six months.
Now the implementation of the agreement has entered into the seventh month making it to be at Limbo and at the verge of collapse.
Many observers including FDP/SSAF are wondering whether this agreement is going to see light especially in the light of the fact that, the signatories to the agreement and the grantors have decided to amend the agreement before its implementation.
- The IGAD-PLUS has directed the government and SPLM/A-IO to form the TGONU without amending the constitution and with the existence of the 28 states.
- The IGAD-PLUS directed the signatories to the agreement to form the TGONU using the agreement as the legal document of reference, which means appointing the First Vice President designate and his cabinet ministers, MPs and FDs. The president, the Vice president and his cabinet ministers would not need to be sworn in again under the peace agreement.
The question is what would be the political and legal implication of using the agreement as a legal document for running the TGONU?
The fallout from this would be;
- The establishment Order No. 36/2015 for the 28 states may not be reversed to 10 states after the formation of TGONU.
- The constitution may not be amended to incorporate the agreement. By doing so, the IGAD-Plus maybe experimenting on South Sudan for implementation of “a Peace Agreement” without amending the constitution.
- The agreement will be dead as soon as the First Vice President designate takes oath of office as First Vice President.
- The President will then govern the country with the un-amended constitution and shall have the liberty to appoint and dismiss the First Vice President and cabinet ministers because there will be no constitutional protection for them.
Then what would be the fate of the agreement that was intended to end the current conflict in South Sudan and to stop the bloodshed, suffering of the people and destruction of the country?
The FDP/SSAF thinks the following may happen;
- The position of the President and his government shall be strengthened and hardened by the IGAD-Plus Communiqué towards other signatories to the agreement particularly the “SPLM-IO and the SPLM-FDs”.
- The IGAD-PLUS has already weakened and abandoned its honest “Broker” position and as such, the government may not succumb to its directives and or advice as it has restored the government position of “Status Quo” of 2013.
- The FDP/SSAF and other rebellious factions would be discouraged by this situation to join the peace process that does not have any guarantees.
- The operationalization of the 28 states is going to tear the country apart because, of the land disputes between and among various ethnic groups created by the Presidential Order No. 36 dated 2nd October 2015.
- The pending economic collapse is going to be aggravated by the administrative cost of the new government institutions particularly, the newly created 18 states and their counties.
- The falling oil prices and the huge devaluation (Floating of Pounds) of SSP from 2.96 to 19.00SSP per dollar and the “Black Market” rate of 30SSP per dollar will worsen the economic situation in the country.
- The government salary increase will also be matched by the market price rises. This will result to a spiralling rise of cost of living for the citizens and will make them worse off than before and as a result, you may not rule out social unrests in the very near future.
- The SPLM/A-IO will feel so vulnerable and toothless because, the IGAD-Plus ruling favours the position of the GRSS as per their Communiqué “dated 31st January 2016“
- The FDP/SSAF appeals to the Regional and International Community to rescue the Republic of South Sudan and its people from drifting to a failed state.
What FDP/SSAF stands for in brief:
A South Sudan that is federally & politically united democratically governed, culturally harmonious, socially just, economically prosperous, environmentally rich, and secure in its sovereignty enabling all South Sudanese leaves peacefully to pursue their dreams.
A south Sudan where democracy is a way of life, where political power is peacefully exchange from one political party to another through the ballot box in free, fare, credible, peaceful and transparent election throughout the Republic of South Sudan.
In conclusion, instead of IGAD-Plus experimenting on South Sudan by using the agreement as the legal reference document for the formation of TGONU, instead of amending the constitution by incorporating the agreement in to it, it would be more appropriate to declare this “Peace Agreement” Null and Void” before it dies a natural death that may have serious security repercussions for the country.
Signed by Hon. Gabriel Changson Chang, Chairman and C-in-C of FDP/SSAF