By Tethloach Dak Lampuar
Nov 8th, 2014 (Nyamilepedia) — Many interests and factors play major roles to the outcome of South Sudan conflict resolution and these factors may indeed will lengthened the war if the world does it the way it has been handling this war since Salva Kiir has introduced it in December 2013.
Among them take the Western World interest for example: This school of thought suggested that the West afraid that if SPLM-IO defeated Kiir militarily, it means Uganda that has been part of the war may not be forgiven by the new regime of South Sudan, and civil war with Uganda is in avertable. The West is not comfortable with this to happen since any humanitarian cost management would fall under the West’s shoulder in terms of reliefs support during this would be a regional war.
Another school of thought of why the West is so keen is that if SPLM-IO succeeded by removing Kiir militarily, it would mean the Northern rebel struggle has become a closed chapter; hence the new regime in the South together with Bashir will crash this rebel group, and crashing this Northern rebel group once and for all is an indication that the suffering of Darfurians, Nubians, Agazna and Blue-Nilians citizens become a forgotten case/dead fish. Crashing Northern rebels will be a sign of stimulating Bashir wanted by ICC with a more leverage of ruling Sudan with iron and fist. This episode makes Western countries have a serious of nightmare. And that is one of the factors the Western countries prefer a regime that killed thousands of Nuer civilians in December 2013 to keep holding on power in order for Northern rebel group to survive. In better terms, the West values Northern Sudan rebel group longevity of survival over Nuer’s massacre by Kiir. Justice denied!
This is being the secret behind the West’s interest, the ball is on President Bashir’s court to either support the SPLM-IO with maximum strength in order for both parties (SPLM-IO and NCP) to have a win-win achievement or let the SPLM-IO down. But guess what! Once the SPLM-IO is crashed down for example, the next target will be on Bashir’s door when combine force of Uganda, SPLM-Juba, and Northern rebel will parade to Bashir’s door to let him have a quick exit from power. This why I termed it ‘ball is on Bashir’s court’ to carefully take a bold decision to cooperate with SPLM-IO before it becomes too late for him and his regime.
To put this point better; according to the leaked document from Uganda, its army force is pretty much ready to crash SPLM-IO rebel if the peace talk failed and this operation will kick off during late December 2014 or early January 2015. Once the South Sudan rebel is crashed, Uganda will not mince its word to galvanize Juba and Northern rebels to go and bring down the Khartoum government. Bashir’s advisor, Mustafa Osman Ismail, warned that “His country was running out of patience with Uganda over their alleged support to rebel groups fighting Khartoum. Mustafa also claimed that the new break-away state of South Sudan backed rebel groups in different parts of the country fighting to overthrow his senior’s regime. Sudanese official also claim that Uganda is hosting a number of senior Darfur rebel groups”. Read more: http://www.newvision.co.ug/mobile/Detail.aspx?NewsID=629608&CatID=1
This is a known fact from Uganda political endeavor, and will be up to Khartoum government to wait for its own death row after her supposedly to be the best alliance/SPLM-IO has become annihilated.
IGAD Interest on Salva Kiir regime:
From economy perspective South Sudan government since the signing of CPA has been a country where its wealth is controls by IGAD countries, take NGOs for instance, are 90% run by foreigners specifically IGAD countries citizens; inter- alia, the banking industry in the country is runs by Kenyan and generates millions of dollars for Kenya, hotel and lodges are run by Ethiopians and Eritreans and multi-millions of cashes generated from this industry go to both countries, Fuel business runs by Somalis, and with Uganda taking charge of construction and inter-countries trade investments on top of other lists.
With all these chunks of benefits IGAD countries have been harvesting while empty minded Kiir being on power, the IGAD knows clearly that Dr. Riek Machar is a bright, and genius leader where once he got onto power he will not entertain nonsensical policies. This economy delusional of IGAD countries towards SPLM-IO leadership makes IGAD not a neutral body in mediating and bringing the peace rather taking a side in the war, Uganda being the prime case example here.
Therefore, it is not a surprise to see Dr. Machar in the IGAD mediated meeting of yesterday sandwiched by all IGAD countries leaders except Sudan to sign fake proposals which indeed at the end rendered more powers on Kiir.
However, with all these challenges Dr. Riek Machar is a person that never bought cheap threats and deals. In the end, the SPLM-IO leadership has a full trust on whatever agreement he will sign, and justice will finally prevail.
The writer is a SPLM-IO member, freedom fighter, and can be reached at: firstname.lastname@example.org