South Sudan Peace Will Collapse Evidence From Several Indicators

By Dhoal larjin,

Dr. Riek Machar, the leader of SPLM/SPLA-IO, addressing the SPLM/SPLA leaders in Pagak, April 2015(Photo: Nyamilepedia)

Dr. Riek Machar, the leader of SPLM/SPLA-IO, addressing the SPLM/SPLA leaders in Pagak, April 2015(Photo: Nyamilepedia)

Jan 17, 2016(Nyamilepedia) —- South Sudan peace agreement signed on August 17, 2015, is risking failed from the stakeholders because they are intentionally focusing on irrelevant issues to the agreement. The parties to the agreement seem to have diverted the real disputes they have agreed to twenty-eight states. They are now resisting implementation on issues including cessation of hostilities, security arrangement, constitution amendment, selection of Transitional of the national government and much more in the agreement. None of these concerns is partially implemented for the peace to reach people. They are thinking outside the accord that is a direct signal of failure because they are diverting the real disputes and eventually violate the principle. They should stop thinking outside the box and focus on issues they have agreed in Addis. JMEC should monitor them and know where the violation is likely to destroy the peace. It is liable to tell that the current peace agreement will flop because the implementation is not respected by the parties. I know that this deal will collapse because distracting the real issues indicate the failing of this peace. We can save our country from conflict by pushing all parties to implement the peace. I want to share several indicators in which each party should have pay attention to them but they are not.

  1. Transitional Security arrangement

Transitional security arrangement is now one of the holding concern that each partner of peace should respect because it is one of the main dispute. Security matter will save the county from the conflict if it is implemented first. I recommend it should be in the priority. The parties to peace agreement should not allow this deal to collapse at the implementation stage for they agree and sing peace. All sides agree that all forces will be deployed outside Juba within the radius of twenty-five kilometers from the center of Juba town. This activity is to begin thirty days after the signing of the peace agreement and should be completed within ninety days. I think the time frame is expired that means it is being violated because the parties did not meet the timing as well as implementing it. It is violated because all the thirty days and ninety and have passed, but all parties and individuals perform nothings. It is a big holding indicator because it has not been implemented and none of the parties is talking about its status. JMEC should come out with a positive report on why this is not implemented on time. JMEC can be blamed on this issue because it is not reporting the violation of this peace. It should report fairly on the two parties as a neutral party else people will assume that it has taken a decision to make a side. The parties to the agreement need to implement this part if they are serious about the peace.

  1. Constitution amendments

Peace accord requires some acknowledgment by the legislative assembly to make it a law for the country to abide every citizen in South Sudan. The failure to incorporate the peace agreement in the legislation of the country will mean that the agreement is not for South Sudanese, but it is rather own by interest groups. The agreement has not yet been presented to the legislative assembly and not adopted by the legislature. We have not seen any recognition of this agreement from the government. The deal is said to be presented and approved by the national legislative assembly within seven days from the signing of the agreement. If it is already submitted to the legislature, there should be a clear report indicating they have incorporated it into the Constitution. The two parties should be determined to push this agreement for adaptation by the parliament. I am urging the parties to present the agreement to the law for the people of South Sudan to own the peace and not the parties to own the agreement.

  1. Formation of Transitional of Government of National Unity

The formation of Transition of the government of national unity is supposed to be implemented with ninety days from the signing of the peace agreement. Anyone can tell that ninety days is passed and the process incomplete. We can give a big credit to the parties because they have tried to implement it, but it incomplete. They are exciting to rush to form the TGONU when they have not yet resolve security arrangement. I suggest that TGONU should become the last concern in the implementation. I don’t know why most people are rushing to see this in place. I think they consider it importance because most of our population need positions. Everyone wants to know his relative is selected to the position of nation ministries so that they guarantee their cakes in the government. I want to point out that position with conflict will not allow you to enjoy fruitful outcomes because the money you will get arise from corruption. We should focus on the dispute and resolve our concern first then we can move to select the people who will represent us in government. I suggest all ministries selection should be based on merit not political. We have seen selected positions, and some parties have even chosen people to fill the positions. For example, the former detainees have selected two ministries. The ministries of foreign affairs are given to Deng Alor Kuol while the Minister for Road and construction goes to John Luk Jok. SPLM-IO and the GRSS have not yet identified people to fill the positions for the national ministers. I believe in selection based on a merits ministries and anyone without academic qualification should not be selected to national ministries. GRSS and SPLM-IO should go ahead and appoint their national ministries to show they are serious about this peace.

  1. Cessation of hostilities

I do appreciate that the cessation of hostilities is reduced from extreme existent of civil war to small scale of violate. That means we will not have a significant level of civil war, but small war exists in some states. We still have small armed struggle across the country. For example, there are violence and armed conflict in the equatoria region that result in more displacement of the civilians. They should have been stopped, and all the parties should be called to peace deal. There are still ongoing killing of Nuer being targeted at IDP camps, and militia sponsored by GRSS are killing those who live in their home. They are raiding homes of people suspected of having supporting to SPLM-IO. There are ways to stop the war when we are willing stop targeting and killing of our people in Juba. I want all parties to abandon the war and implement peace. We should live peaceful and encourage unity among our communities.

  1. Joint Monitoring and evaluation commission (JMEC)

JMEC is another complication to peace agreement because they don’t wish to specify the schedules to show which activity is to happen first, middle, and the last so that we know where the parties are standing at the movement. They should indicate whether the obstacle is the GRSS or SPLM-IO for people to get aware of the situation. JMEC should focus on the peace and stop using the opportunity for threat or intimidation of any side to the conflict. GRSS and JMEC are now threatening the advance team of SPLM-IO to leave hotels in Juba and go to their homes. It cost more money to accommodate more people in hotels. They say they will stop hosting people in hotels if parties cannot form the Transitional Government of National Unity in time. The leadership of SPLM-IO is likely to call back the advance team to report the ongoing issues and attend a leadership meeting and to hear the abstractly of the peace agreement.

The advance team should be reporting the issues to the administration. GRSS should get ready for formation of Transitional government of national unity. They expect Transitional of national government in place but there are securities preparation. Their problem is that they are not specifying the violators. Finally, I am urging the JMEC to enforce this peace agreement by use of force to save the country and people from going back to civil war. I am appealing to the two parties to respect the peace agreement that they have signed in Addis.

Dhoal Larjin is a leader of SPLM-IO II can be reached through email at dtuolual@gmail.com


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7 comments

  • Wedjuba

    Larjin,

    You are right, the peace deal is dead, yes DEAD.

    I really can’t understand why people still keep preaching and expecting miracles to happen to change the Jiengs attitudes.

    Listen, the JMEC and IGAD Plus are too weak to force Mr. Kiir to abide to the deal he had signed last August. SPLM is now positioning itself to take advantage of those who are still delirious of the so called peace agreement.

    Here are the facts, those who are yearning for peace will come straight under the umbrella of this wicked SPLM, which is the property of killer Kiir himself and the JCE. So they will make sure that things remain as they are, dictated and owned by the Jiengs,…to hell with South Sudan and the rest of the 63 tribes. As long as “Dinkernization and the Jiengs supremacy” does not proceed. ….NO REFORMS, NO CHANGES, AND NO PROGRESS.

    These are bitter truths, so to all you South Sudanese trying to be reasonable for the sake of peace in South Sudan, forget that!.

    As for now, Mr. Machar should stay where he is, seriously, no jokes this time. I have been saying this all the time and I repeat, the Jiengs are not ready for peace in South Sudan, period!.

    The Opposition (IO) must mobilise the forces in Equatoria, and Upper Nile. Both should come with full FORCE, match to Juba, kill Mr Kiir and his people and liberate all South Sudanese hold hostage all these time. This is the only language the Dinkas will understand and the truest way to achieve THE REAL PEACE in our country.

    There will never be peace in South Sudan if ordinary people and the IO- Forces don’t wake up, and once and for all time, make bloody sacrifices for a real CHANGE in the country. We all die once anyway.

    We must not commit the mistake of expecting change from outside, from our neighbours or international community no, no no my friends, we the people in Equatoria and Upper Nile must rise up, determine and shape our own future.

    A D-DAY in South Sudan must happen brethren, we can not afford to sit back and tolerate Jiengs persecuting each of our 63 tribes. No way, we must blow them off, before they even think of blowing the whole South Sudan into oblivion.

    THE CLOCK IS TICKING!!!, wake up ye people!!!!.

    • chol y

      Keep dreaming fool Dinka is not going anywhere

    • WedJuba , you are the only person who actually talk like me and see the true color of evil Dinka people of South Sudan about the peace many people dreaming about ; these evil Dinkas do not want any peace as long as Ugandan President Museveni is in their side and will come to their aide when the war will break soon. How could Evil Dinka make you (Equatorians) an enemy with your brothers Ugandans while they do not have any common border and if even the worst come, the disintegration of South Sudan, the Equatorians will join Uganda but not the Dinka. Please ,educate the tribes on your border about what the Dinka are doing in this country and not help them to make their brothers and sisters slaves by their support

  • Collapse or not is going to help Dr.Riek Machar because South Sudan is now 100% overlooking or observatory. I don’t know who have hijack who because it was in the News for several months,but they didn’t take it very seriously. It is good for our suffering people to survive.

  • Wedjuba

    Chol,

    You fucking dark ape, you don’t belong to Juba you lazy, mentally dilapidated filth. We’ll see who will soon run naked out of Juba. This time for good.

    You animals only understand fire in your ass to be disciplined.

  • We want peace in order government in Juba to feed it’s own big cities and our rural areas have to settle and take care of themselves too. Long live the Rural Areas!

  • Kelmateen Heart Mobilzer

    do you guys realize what you are doing is violating peace in this Country why because you guys are only good at mocking the government or Kiir himself when you don’t even know what you are saying, where you are heading your own life and you keep threatening the Government or Kiir of failing in presidency while Riek also failed when he was in the seat .
    you should blame the Bloody Riek for always creating problem to the gridy Nuer community. why has he always attempt a coup and in the last minute he says this is between Dinka and Nuer why? have ever ask him why is the fighting always between Nuer and Dinka and not any other ordinary tribe in South Sudan ? look before you lift otherwise it will always remain like it is currently no room for Glutons Nuer anymore
    ?

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