How To Reach Agreement On Transitional Security Arrangement For South Sudan’s Waring Parties!

By Mun Both Joak, Canada

Rival SPLA Generals signing minutes of Security arrangement in Addis Ababa(Photo: file)

Rival SPLA Generals signing minutes of Security arrangement in Addis Ababa(Photo: file)

Oct 31, 2015(Nyamilepedia) —- South Sudan’s peace should be achieve only and only if both parties in the conflict embrace the concept of “balance of power.”

The balance of power can prevent war when both parties have the same power of military. The arrangement that each party is to contribute the same amount of troops will prevent the recurrent of war.

Political analysis on “balance of power” have been collected and the political scientists found out that a country with nuclear weapons can be safe from attack from another country with the same weapons. As we can see from United States of America and Russia both countries have been avoiding direct combat since the cold war. For example, during Cuban Missile crisis in 1962, Russian army shot down a US spy aircraft over Cuban territory but the US President John F. Kennedy tried his very best to avoid the strike against Russian army.

For US to avoid confrontation with Russia President Kennedy had to use diplomatic approach and convince Russia to withdraw its nuclear warheads sneaked into Cuba in order to attack the United States of America. For the Russia to withdraw it nuclear weapons the US government used compromised to reduce its war arsenals placed in Turkey US air base against Russia.
From there deadly war that could have caused unwanted suffering of humankind was averted.

On South Sudan case if we use the same method of balance of power without giving anyone between President Kiir and the Opposition leader Dr. Machar more power than the other peace, tranquility and security will be achieved in South Sudan.

The power behind the the “balance of power” is that no one will try to attack the other because he know from the onset that he will not win. How can you expect to win easily when you know your opponent has the same military capabilities as your are?

Kenneth Waltz, the father of the “balance of power” said “the concept of balance of power is a threat against “rising hegemon.” This is true today in our world because any country that tends to be hegemony of the world faces hardships in consolidating its power. Take America for example, whenever its tried to make big decisions what happens from China and Russia? They “bandwagon” against the United States’ decisions and always veto any decision against their interests.

That is the power of “balance of power.”

In conclusion, IGAD Plus Troika must follow the same concept of Kenneth Waltz by using the “balance of power” on South Sudan.

In order to bring peace and stability South Sudan government must be forced to accept the concept of “balance of power.” IGAD Plus Troika must present equal forces in all security sectors such police force, national security, fire brigades, life, prison guards, national army and the body guards for President Kiir and the the Opposition leader Dr. Machar. By doing that no one will attempt to attack the because he knows from onset that he will not win the war.

The author can be reached for comments munbjock@hotmail.com 

5 comments

  • wedjuba

    The analogy of our political situation in South Sudan with that between the US and Russia during the cold war could have been plausible if we had Dinkas and Nuer as the only two tribes in South Sudan bickering for power. But that’s not the case, South Sudan is extremely diverse.

    Here are some visionary suggestions that could bring eternal peace to South Sudan’s problems and its many tribes.

    We need three separate armies in South Sudan.

    First, we need to revisit history and maintain the three Greater States (previously known as provinces) i.e,

    Greater Equatoria State
    Greater Upper Nile State
    Greater Bahr El Gazal State

    G.Equatoria State must have an army comprising only of all tribes from Equatoria region, G.Upper Nile State with its army and tribes, and G.Bahr Al Gazal State likewise, every tribe packed and composed within its respective boundary.

    Second, shaping stability and prosperity in our multiethnic multicultural South Sudan needs attentions to inclusiveness and mutual respect, and by placing everybody in the above mentioned organisations I think we would not only have an orderly mannerd big society but a peacefully coexisting one.

    Third, a vigorous and successful government would only be established if the voices of the people are heard and taken into consideration. We can only enjoy tranquillity and peace in South Sudan if we accept to be “different but one people”.

    Now, the members of JCE would not have encountered aggressive headwinds if they had kept their advices for themselves in their own territory, G. Bahr Al Gazal State, the Dinka land.This could have been their ultimate legitimate right to exercise and represent within their own confinement, not to the rest of people.They have messed up and committed huge mistake of misleading the entire country and its many tribes into a dead end, and now they will pay the price.

    Conclusively, I strongly believe that South Sudan and its children will come to peace if and only if the above trigeminal States BALANCE of powers is achieved.
    The respective State armies will not be there to wage wars against one another no, they will be there to create an equilibrium of RESPECT.

    Doors would be opened to every South Sudanese to work, live, perform other activities freely in any other neighbouring State provided that these movements are well channelled, governed and correspond to respective States’ laws and regulations.

    By taking these simple directions my friends, I believe we would not only bring the real PEACE to South Sudan but further make every South Sudanese say “Hallelujah, Amen this is what we have been waiting for” for over 60 years!

  • simon

    You should know that there aren’t two countries in south sudan but one. Also you should know that russian and usa agreement was based on intellectual foundation, some thing that south does not have. You know quiet well that majority of army and their generals illiterate and tribalist. Look at opposition itself, they have already broke up into two.

  • Tolio

    The writer should have talked about separation of powers and balance of powers between the executive, judiciary and legislative committees in South Sudan,not between Kiir and Riek.

    Both those men belong to the same country and analogy on the balance of powers between the US and Russia has no much for Kiir and Riek.

    The US and Russia are two separate subcontinental world’s superpower countries with so many little satellite states each protects under her alliance based on the Western bloc and Eastern Bloc divisions with exceptions of subcontinental India and Africa which were neutral to join neither of the two blocs back in the past.

    As for Kiir and Riek, there is no need for the balance of their military forces. One is the president and another is the vice. A president should have more than the vice. This is a systematic logic in every country in the world.

    Having the same number of soldiers will make the country seems like warlike and it is not what the peace was needed and signed for.

    Even John Kerry of the US government told Riek that making security arrangements doesn’t mean having equal number of forces for thing like fighting or revenging.

    There are other additional forces such as AU’s and UN’s that should make Juba safer for everyone,unless intentions are not to work for reforms and national reconciliation in which the peace were needed for to make the country go forwards.

  • The Dinka warlords-Generals-perpetrators of the December 2013, Nuer Genocide in Juba, Killer Kiir, Kuol Manyany, Malong Awan, Salva Mathok, Garang Mabir, marial Chanuong, and Bol Akot, plus Makuei Liar, Philip Aguer, Mabek Lang Bilkuey, Ambrose Riiny, and Bona Malual, MUST FIRST BE CASTRATED AND CREMATED before peace can prevail in South Sudan

  • For every one living soul in South Sudan, bear in your mind that the unilateral creation of so call 28 states in South Sudan by mad president kiir brings along with it every lasting conflicts that will not be easily resolved, because they were created based on the demands and interests of certain tribes. If you do not belive it for now, it will happen. PadietGahgah

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