SPLM’s Governing Structures Dissolved, What Future Holds For its Opposition Factions?
By Deng Vanang,
Oct 25, 2015(Nyamilepedia) —- South Sudan’s President and SPLM’s Chairman, Salva Kiir Mayardit is the man galloping on long strides as he stops at nothing in either clearing every law that stands in his way with finishing line hardly insight in order to weaken, if not disregard in total, the peace deal that slowly eats away once an imperial Presidency; or legally removing sharp thorns painfully pricking in his side, just to assert himself at the helm of an ever quarrelsome party.
SPLM party Chairman’s dissolution of the party governing structures effectively locks out the renegade factions. These groups are none other than SPLM-IO of Dr. Riek Machar and former political detainees, FPD’s faction of Pa’gan Amum. The two rebellious factions respectively champion armed resistance and political activism.
SPLM/A -IO has all its feet stamped in the battle field while FPD globe-triodes in search for political sympathy in foreign capitals against the same regime. However, the groups share one objective of regime change but through different means as mentioned above.
Kiir’s dissolution of the party’s governing structures was however disputed by party’s second deputy, James Wani Igga. According to Igga, Kiir only dissolved General Secretariat of which Pagan is included as Secretary-General while extraordinary and the 3rd conventions are slated to be convened between November and January this year.
The same time when the two SPLM’s rebellious factions won’t be available in Juba. And even if they will be there, they will not have enough time to marshal their troops and resources in order to stake claim for leadership positions in the party.
3rd Convention being convened within the time frame of November and January as Igga stated, will just be a cleverly choreographed political tactic of barring the rebellious groups’ members from participation. Whose failure to attend it shall be translated by Kiir’s group to mean their intentional boycott.
This move will set the stage for a grueling legal battle in courts of law between SPLM’s rival factions on whether or not convention be declared null and void. Should 3rd convention take place as scheduled before twin rebellious factions’ leaderships set foot in Juba, then they will likely win the court battle provided they lodge the court case against Kiir and company.
While it shall be another ballgame should Kiir’s group as constitutionally established authority defends its action by saying, it by then considered the SPLM/A-IO as armed faction with which it couldn’t sleep under the same roof legally. Even if junior SPLM/A-IO’s members are allowed back, its top members can likely be rejected to return by Kiir’s group that could maliciously cite the alleged criminal records of 1991 Nasir’s failed coup as well as recent 2013’s coup theory.
FPD’s members applying to be re-instated back may succeed since they are not a threat but minced meat Kiir and group could just effortlessly munch in any event of leadership contests.
While FPD can be excusable since it is considered as non-armed and not a threat if re-instated back but minced meat Kiir and group could just effortlessly munch in any future leadership contests. But questions too difficult to be answered by Kiir’s group will arise.
How can the rivals be still viewed as armed and dangerous groups long after they signed peace with Kiir’s group? And what is Kiir and co.’s motives in hurriedly convening the convention at a time the rest are about to join them in a few months’ time?
Kiir and company betrayed by timing are simply running away with the party competitors by right share with them, being the likely fair answer from the – would – be presiding judges in the courts. Just in case, one of all SPLM’s factions voluntarily decides to take the moral ground by quitting and forming an alternative party, that can no doubt give it a political boost from the public that has been weary of SPLM, turned mass grave over the years.
Whereas the rest that remain to continue quarreling in the party shall likely be admonished by the public for sustaining the unity of the party that causes only misery and destruction.
Arusha pact on the other hand, is not an agreement but an arbitration that binds on the signatories so long as all abide by it. And what is even worse is that people have been tearing their precious lives apart over the means other than the end.
Presidency is the destination for all politicians with several means to arrive at it such as political parties. For if one takes over the SPLM as the party doesn’t automatically presuppose taking charge of the government. The person must go extra miles in fighting over the presidency in order to take over the government, if successful in a pool of more contestants from different officially registered political parties.
May be SPLM being a party of liberation is the reason why some politicians fallaciously think it is still popular with the electorate without thinking of its tainted background history. They should instead differentiate between SPLM of liberation era and that of post-liberation era in which any ruling party is judged by a number of goods and services it has delivered to the public ever since it cruised to the helm.
Again South Sudan like any other parts of African in a third world’s democracy is a place where ethnic and regional voting characterizes elections. With any presidential candidate leading a political bloc behind which rally bigwigs from numerous ethnic groups and regions takes the upper hand in the election.
Another is the candidate having the inter-woven links with security forces such as army and civil defense forces to intimidate voters to vote for him or her. Wades of money enough to buy a considerable chunk of purchasable votes is the fourth possible strategy of a candidate ascending to power.
Divine intervention either heavenly or underworld to manipulate and confuse electorate is one last strategy for a candidate to romp home cold and dry with sweet victory. But if it is the only name to fail one as the Presidential candidate, there is still enough innovation to avail. Here are suggested names to resonate well with South Sudanese masses if elections come calling in post-transitional period and only if all goes on well.
NARD – National Alliance for Reforms and Democracy is one unique name of a party one or some clever politicians can grab with all the relish. Another is NAM-DC – National Action Movement for Democratic Change. NAM is the former under ground movement of Samuel Gai Tut, Akwot Atem, Mathew Obur Ayang and among others. While its suffix DC is borrowed if not stolen from Dr. Lam Akol’s SPLM.
Nothing much in a name of a particularly chosen party except one which is continuously associated with spilled blood and destruction of invaluable property. For political parties associated with mayhem have been disbanded from use and so are individuals behind their formation and leadership.
Best examples are German Socialist Workers Party, the Nazism and Hitler as the leaders were disposed off in Europe and worldwide. More recently the same incidence happened in neighboring Egypt where former President Hosni Mubarak’s Democratic Party was abolished in 2011 and its gigantic and magnificent Headquarters bulldozed into debris.
Just only to mention a few relevant examples still closer to our fading memories. Much as SPLM has lost its relevance in South Sudan and if any is political war and economic misery are to be likely waged against us by neighboring Sudan.
For simpler reason that Sudan will always accuse us of still harboring tested and failed unity of old Sudan. That is through us helping its rebels as a conduit to achieve that goal. Possible wild reaction to our provocation is Sudan denying us money accruing from the sale of oil whose pipelines run through its territory straight to Port Sudan, enough to keep us hungry and under developed for a long haul.
Deng Vanang is a Journalist and author to be reached at:firstname.lastname@example.org