S SUDAN: THE CREATION OF 28 STATES AND THE IMPLICATIONS
It’s the belief of Independent political analysts and pundits after careful analysis from different perspectives that the score of the decree is far less below expectations of the masterminds.
Supposedly a good lesson to learn one or two things from; but this will surely again go down to trash just like the previous grave miscalculations made by the very ruling elites.
How absurd Decisions of National Importance are imprudently conspired against by a clique to meet well architected individuals’ benefits and interests! And all these supposedly National decisions achieve as their end-results is less than nothing to the common man and woman of the land.
Although it’s SPLM/A In Opposition leadership that first condemned in the strongest terms possible the overnight creation of the 28 States out of the constitutionally existing 10 State-South Sudan, it is a good gesture again that the friends and partners to South Sudan including the International Community and Regional Bodies never hesitate to echo the same concern.
The cry out and the continuous suffering of the people of South Sudan seems this time has reached the peak and consequently become an issue of utmost concern to the world.
It is why we see the International Community today keeps doubling their ounces to the pressure on any party that seems redundant to the implementation of permanent cease fire that in turn can give glimpse of hope for possible roadmap to transition of the proposed and signed power-sharing arrangements.
What every concerned body that has brokered and labored hard to genuinely see that South Sudan is at peace, care about is not necessarily the President Salva Kiir’s eventual downfall in the long run or his greatly trimmed powers in the signed Compromised Peace Agreement neither the SPLM/A [IO] leadership overwhelming popularity and possible ascending to the realm of power.
So, it is very importance I must say for the Government of South Sudan and its supporters and sympathizers especially to have this in minds. It is peace and only peace that the people in South Sudan need at all cost. Nothing less or more to this!
The external parties to the conflict, for instance; UNSC, the TROIKA and AU to mention but a few, hold nothing personal against President Salva Kiir as an individual but are just simply and greatly disturbed by the scale of the continuous gross violations and delayed implementation of the signed Compromised Peace Agreement that invites more suffering of innocent people.
What the people of South Sudan had gone through in the previous months, years of National upheavals and state of lawlessness that started sometimes before December 15 is enough and if anybody in their powers who look forwards to further this suffering at the watch of International Community shall be condemned in the strongest terms.
I am glad today that the International Community no longer turns blind eye at the doomed and ill strategies orchestrated by persons who care nothing about their subjects than forever remaining in power.
President Salva Kiir’s impetuous decision of creating 28 States without prior consultations and consensus of his new peace partners, most especially the SPLM/A under the leadership of Dr. Machar, Civil Society Groups and other recognized political parties within the Constitution is a total violations to the Compromised.
It is not what Kiir as a president can do alone because South Sudanese are all almost sure that President Kiir cannot bring peace to the country alone. Thus to alleviate the appalling human conditions is a scenario that requires collective efforts and individual commitments.
The summary below outlines what I think as the possible implications and shortcomings of the unprecedented creation of 28 States amidst high uncertainty of peace deal implementations;
- Increased ethnic tensions; the creation of the 28 States was not genuinely well conducted procedure. It was one man decision who was ill advised on ethnical merit. In pre-existed ten State-South Sudan, we could find more than four different ethnic groups in one state peacefully co-existing because they believe that their co-existence in harmony matters a lot since they are geographically enclosed in one area and most importantly they share a common prestige in history that glues their existence intact. All they have to concern themselves about is foreign aggression probably from other states which wasn’t common. However, I notice that some of the recently created 28 states geographically isolate certain group of people principally along tribal line. This with the existing heightened ethnic tensions I believe this will have to only fuel the tribal clashes since one state will look itself independent of the others. People already lost lives with tribal related conflicts within the days of announcement of the decree.
- 2.Violated signed Compromised Peace Agreement; this is almost the immediate implication of the 28 States. In fact I strongly believe it’s the prime objective that provokes and screws the creation of the 28 States. President Kiir always seeks scapegoat to allow him violate the ‘Compromised.’ He clogs to ‘Reservations’ and did not achieved the desired and intended outcome from it and now he is the ‘genius’ who championed the long for federal State by over creating 28 State South Sudan. With this the President thought he would kill two birds with one stone. First, if Dr. Riek Machar refuses his creation, he will hold him accountable as a violator of the pact. Second, if Dr. Riek Machar accepts and succumbs to it, he has accomplished the mission of promoting tribalism with tribally created states and a forged reputation from federalism. He just succeeded in violating the pact anyway and may be in creating the states but the International Community still holds to his neck.
- Possible Poor Interstates’ borders Demarcation. Being a presidential decree I am certain more efforts and considerations were not concentrated on the Interstates’ borders demarcation like it suppose to be with carefully planned procedure. This will be noted most in freshly fragmented states which don’t fall in line with the 21 British demarcated districts of Southern Region of Sudan. The problem with this is anticipated to be very serious and deadly. Border issues already claimed lives in numerous points both domestics and International borders. The cases we can vividly recall are the Abyei clash with Sudan, Ndapal with Kenya and Uganda as well claimed some border lines. So, this recklessness of 28 States creation places us on a ticking time bomb. The National Border Commission, if it really exists should probe into this matter with urgency.
- Strained and stretched National Budget: From Independence, South Sudan has been tussling with whooping National budget that has never been covered. Couple with gross mismanagement of public assets and increased theft, the petrodollars could not contain the budget. The 10 years period from 2005 Semi-autonomous has been completely a spending spree for the government officials and little in term of infrastructural development and social service delivery to the people has been registered. How about the dream of 28 State South Sudan amidst civil war, humanitarian crisis and drastic economic meltdown? To me, this means grooming of more and more national thieves, under development and eventual failed state. There are no well established mechanisms to supervise and monitor efficient running of 28 States. If mismanagement, embezzlement and corruption could not be curbed in only pre-existed 10 State South Sudan, what of the 28?
- Implemented Divide and Rule Policy; it is easy to rule one big divided family than a whole for weak leaders. Creation of 28 states come along with anticipated ease in manipulation for more political gains than the well being of the occupants of the states. It’s a fact that in South Sudan some states are more prone to political manipulation due to their volatility and instability while others are hard to destabilize. Dividing these states into fragments will soften the hard nuts and pave the desired political path.
- Promoted Disunity; with 28 states policy, the people of South Sudan shall remain in disarray and suffer disunity. Each state will see itself independent and each enclosed ethnic group shall only practice and develop their own sets of beliefs, locking out harmony and intermingling of beliefs, ways of life and cultural blending that creates sense of unity of purpose in the diverse South Sudan. In other words, the spirit of diversity will rapidly fade and egocentricity will have to crop up by all possible means as the possible replacement.
The list could go on and on.
One possible way out to these anticipated shortcomings is to diplomatically persuade and engage President Kiir to suspend and reverse his unilateral 28 States Policy while South Sudan concentrates on more important issues at hand.