THE ROADMAP TO DURABLE AND PERMANENT PEACE AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION IN SOUTH SUDAN
“If anyone is against us he is a terrorist and if anyone is with us he is a good guy.” -The US President George Bush, Jr.
“We cannot afford to dwell, dine, dance and sleep with the enemies from within. They must and ought to freely exit the society that they hated most to go elsewhere that would become convenience for them.” Prof. David de Chand
By Ambassador/Professor David de Chand
July 07, 2015(Nyamilepedia) — “It would become imperatively impractical, if not impossible, to attain that no Dinka has the capacity, ability and the capability of wiping out the Nuer ethnicity or nationality to become like the Red Indians (First Nation) in the Americas and the Aborigines in Australia, Tasmania and New Zeeland wiped out by the European Settlers in South Sudan. It could become the reverse of this logical amorphous equation against the Dinka in South Sudan”- Prof. David de Chand
“Separation of South Sudan into three (3) is an inevitability whose time has come that would occur whether any fools like it or not, it’s bound to occur in due course of time.- Professor David de Chand” (These quotes have been extracted from David de Chand’s writings, memoirs, articles and books manuscripts).
This is a proposed paper that would explore ways and means, proposals to achieve cessation of hostilities; ceasefire; comprehensive and inclusive negotiations of the Movements; Political Parties; political forces; traditional chief councils; the Nuer Elders Councils (NEC); the Dinka Elders Councils (DEC); women groups; the youth; the civil society organizations and any peoples from all political spectrums who have been excluded from the rounds of talks held in Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, in the past 19-month or so on this ongoing treacherous tribal warfare or the civil war in the Africa’s youngest failed state of South Sudan.
We call for comprehensive and inclusive rounds of talks on the roadmap to peace, durable and permanent peace because we have observed that the IGAD with particular interest of only reconciling the split SPLM as the ruling party in the aftermath of it internal fraction, fragmentation and split in mid-December 2013. We would hypothetically assume that the IGAD mediators have ponderously assumed that the whole of South Sudan has been all loyal SPLM/A or have over sighted the present of other overwhelmingly silent majority non-SPLM/A South Sudanese folks in the process. Historically and statistically, less than a third of the country population of approximately of Sudan’s 42 million according to the last 5th Population Census of 2010 is SPLA membership.
[I] THE UNITARY SYSTEM
In the referendum more than 60% of the voters were pro-unionists under a shared federal system as opposed to unitary system of governance. Most of the pro-unionist votes were deliberately and willfully destroyed or discarded. In the other words, the voting was rigged by the SPLM as the ruling party during the semiautonomous Government of Southern Sudan under the Interim Transitional Government of National Unity (GONU) equally shared by the NCP/SPLM/A in the post bilateral Naivasha Peace Agreement [CPA] of 2005 otherwise technically known as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005, which was not comprehensive at all, in the sense of the word’s origin. Many Northern and Southern Sudan political parties, military Movements, Other Armed Groups (OAGs) with the capabilities of waging war were excluded and blocked in the process by the Quartet (Italy, Norway, the USA, the UK,) that became known as the Peace Sponsoring Countries [PSC].
Specifically, the paper would critically examine different existing unitary governments, federations, confederations and monarchies that are the types of governments that can be found operating in the world today. Each is a potentially successful means of structuring a state. Nevertheless, what separates them is the role of the central government within the state. In the unitary system of government, the central government holds most of the power, but there are local and regional governmental offices under the auspices of the central government. For instance, the UK is a unitary government that parliament holds governing powers, granting power to and removing it from the local governments when it sees fit. France also is a unitary government that the national government rules over the various provinces or departments. The local government bodies carry out or execute or implement the directions of the central government, but never act independently. This has been the inherited Westminster’s Abbey that failed in Sudan in the post-political independence era. In the unitary system, one of the greatest disadvantages have been absolute lack or the absence thereof of top down and
bottom up or horizontal administration. In other words, there is no flow of decision-making from the bottom to the top, but it has been always from the top to the bottom. This paper would present the advantages and disadvantages as we go along researching and writing it.
[II] FEDERALIST SYSTEM
We should become extraordinaire careful when we talk about federalist system of governments. There are many federations in the world today because none of these excising federalist systems have surrendered that jurisdiction to central government. For instance, the EU, the Arab League of States (LAS), the African Union, the Southern African Development Cooperation (SADC), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); the East African Economic Community (EAEC), the newly formed financial institution known as the BRINCS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the Common Wealth of Independent States (CIS), and the likes are all political federalism that no states have surrendered their sovereignty to the central government. In other words, they are political associations for common interests and solidarity amongst the states.
In federalist system, power is marked by sharing of power between the central government and the states, provinces, or local governing bodies. The US is one example of a federalist republic. The Constitution grants to the national government while retaining other powers to the states and local jurisdictions. For instance, the federal government can negotiate treaties with other countries while state and local authorities cannot. The state governments have the power to set and enforce driving laws while the federal government lacks that ability. We shall also look at other federal systems such as, Germany that is also a federalist republic (das bundastag) that shares power with provincial entities known as “Landers”.
In Africa and around the world we shall select federal systems, for examples, Nigeria, India, Tanzania, Cameroun, Sudan and Ethiopia. We shall compared and contrast these federal systems with the purpose of depriving something worthwhile from any of them that could become beneficiary and useful to help enhancing peace and conflict resolution process in South Sudan.
A confederation has a weak central government that derives all its powers from the state or provincial governments. The states of the confederation retain all the powers of an independent nation as the right to maintain a military force, print money, and make treaties with other national powers. The United States began its nationhood as confederation, under the Article of the Confederation. However, the central government was too weak to sustain the bourgeoning country. Therefore the founding fathers shifted to a federal system when drafting the Constitution.
Modern confederations like Switzerland, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which is comprised of several nation-states that were formerly part of the demise Soviet Union or The Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in the aftermath of perestroika (restructuring) and Glasnost (openness) in the late 1989 to early 1990s as the legacy of the Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and the tumbling of the Berlin Wall in the late 1989.
We have also monarchies in the world such as the United Kingdom, the Nordic countries or the Scandinavian countries (Demark, Sweden, Norway and Iceland) and have been operating as full democracies. In the case of contemporary South Sudan that has not has been a non-monarchy state for centuries of its existence as a traditional society with only little exceptionalism, it would be a waste of time, money and energy to dwell on the imperatively impractical, if not impossible, dream to attain. Of course, we have traditional monarchies such as the small Chollo (Shilluk) traditional kingdom in Upper Nile State headed by the Reth (King) has both absolute and resolute spiritual and temporal powers that no Chollo could be above the Reth of the Chollo (Shilluk).
The tradition holds that even the educated Chollo professionals, politicians they could not be above the Reth and they would have to bow downward a far distant before they could take their seats before the Reth and they could not also look at himself straight or eyeball- to-eyeball otherwise Nyikango may not be pleased with anyone who does that. This is the characteristics of absolute monarchy in the small traditional Chollo kingdom compared only to the Buganda kingdom of Uganda, The Anuak traditional kingdom led by a Nyiya (Crown Prince) in southeastern Jonglei State in Pachala and spillovers into Southwestern Ethiopia and the Azande in Western Equatoria, including others not illustrated in this paper, all of them exhibit similarities with the small (Chollo) Shilluk kingdom.. Of course, we could study these traditional kingdoms in our midst for the purposes of knowing and deriving something worthwhile in the sustainable governance; democratization, the rule of law; human rights protections; transparency and accountability.
[V] THE SEARCH FOR PEACE AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION
We do feel and oblige that the study of the above-mentioned systems would provide us with a sense or a common sense of creativity to device a new system from these systems that could become suitable for reconstructing, restructuring, rebuilding and re-governing an already failed state, disunited and disintegrated in South Sudan. Whether the southern leadership likes it or not, South Sudan has already become a failed state, politically instable with continuous deteriorating insecurity and moving from stateless to statelessness similar to Somalia in the Horn of Africa retrospect to the fall of the government of General Mohamed Sayaid Barre in 1992 up to the formation of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FRS) in Mogadishu.
We shall compare and contrast to appreciate the thesis, antitheses and synthesis; advantages and disadvantages for what may be at the end could be suitable for South Sudan whether it could become unitary, federalist, confederation or something that is in-between or hybrid or an admixture derived from the preceded systems analyses and to create a neo-system that we could all agreed to disagree to adopt the current ethnic federalism in Ethiopia as a test case for a would-be re-emerging South Sudan similar to Atlanta, Georgia, like the rising Phoenix when it was burnt down to ashes by the Union General Sherman during the US Civil War (1860-1865).
We hope that everyone in this august gathering would realize and appreciate that no matter what happens South Sudan would not be the same as it used to be before the ongoing aggravating situation and treacherous tribal warfare or as if a civil war, genocide, sexual enslavements, burning of young girls after they have been raped, the mass killings and castration of young boys from the ages of 5-10 and above because the combined Bull Nuer-Dinka generals fear that they would launch revenge when they become men of age.
Furthermore, the Dinka have introduced uncivilized practice otherwise known as cannibalism by having forced humans to eat the flesh of a roasted human being. This has been pretty cruel and unusual punishment, uncivilized, uncultured, uncouth and an act unheard of in the history of wars retrospect to Medieval Europe, the First World War (WWI) (1914-1919), the Second World War (WWII) (1939-1945), Korea and Vietnam quagmires, including others wars fought by human kind on the planet. Actually, its systematic gross human rights abuses, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948.
This act has divided the Dinka and the Nuer forever and they shall and will remain mortal enemies no matter what anybody does to reconcile them for the things they have done, which they ought not to have done..
Specifically, the Dinka have bowed that they would wipe out the Nuer ethnicity as a race from South Sudan soil and on the planet-Earth. The SPLM Secretary-General Pagan Amoum reiterated that the international community should not condemn the Government of South Sudan because the Nuer people have been killed.” We could interpret this statement; it means a heck of a lot.
Firstly, it means that unarmed and helpless Nuer ethnicity should have die like fishes or animals because they are no humans who have no spirits; there should be no any remorseful feelings for them from the international community.
Secondly, Pagan Amoum’s regards the Nuer people as sub-humans and if they died, so what? This is a reminiscent of the Nazi Holocaust, the systematic attempt of German authorities during World War II (WWII) (1939-1945 to kill all and every Jew no matter where found-to destroy Jews as a group, unfortunately.
Thirdly, if the GOSS authorities and its Special Twic Militias otherwise known as Malwal Anyor under the command of Salva Kiir, Paul Malong Awan, Aliew Aying Aliew the then minister of interior and chief of the Internal Security now put in hiding under the pretext of being placed under house arrest who gave orders to kill all and every Nuer no matter were found-to destroy the Nuer as a group, he who would not personally care at all, and life would go on as usual.
Fourthly, it would be recalled that when he and other members of the former detainees otherwise known now as the SPLA-G-10 were in the notorious Underground SPLA Detention Cells in Juba, it was a Nuer leader that fought hard for their unconditional released through the international community and succeeded in doing so on their behalf. How Pagan Amoum’s could be so ungrateful to the Nuer people tragedy? We would like to rest assured Pagan Amoum and the Dinka that the Nuer people as a resilient, brave, strong, courageous, fearless and ferocious fighters shall and will overcome this “tiny dark” spot in its historical epoch as a people and a race in South Sudan soil and on the planet-Earth.
Fifthly, No Dinka, and I repeat, No Dinka would now and forever have the capacity to wipe out the Nuer ethnicity or nationality in South Sudan. They should be mindful that it could become the reverse. In the long run, it would be the Dinka that would request help from the UNMISS, the AU, the UN and its specialized agencies for protection from the Nuer incursions with catastrophic consequences or maximum collateral damage. They Dinka power elite know this will happen and it is only a matter of time, it will happen. Therefore, we would like Pagan Amoum not to forget his statement because it would haunt him as long as he lives. As regard to what happened to the Nuer ethnicity in the 2013 Juba Genocide, we shall and will overcome and it would be avenge d for the next one hundred (100) ahead. There would be no forgiveness for the thing the Dinka have done, which they ought not to have done. The Nuer nation and its resilient people shall and will infamy not to forgive this epic. It would be like the Imperial Japanese Naval attacked against the US Pacific Naval Fleet at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on Sunday, 7 December 1941, The Nazi Holocaust against the Jews, the Young Turks Genocide against Armenians, Saddam Hussein’s gassing of the Kurds, the Serb Genocide against the Muslim in Srebrenica’s during the civil war, which led to the disintegration of the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia after the departure of General Joseph Broz Tito, the historic Atlantic Salve Trade and the enslavement, segregation, social discrimination of the African-Americans in the Confederate South along the Dixie-Mason Line in the antebellum southern United States of America; the Japanese-Americans Internment in California, USA, during the WWII; the occupation and expulsion of the Palestinian Arabs from their homeland by the Euro-Jews under the 1917 Lord Arthur Belford’s Declaration; Apartheid in South Africa against the African majority by the Boer (Dutch and the French-Hugenoneuetts descendents) (Africa white tribe) minority with the support of the Western powers (1948-1994); The 1994 Rwanda Genocide by the Hutus against the Tutsi in Rwanda, and the ongoing prosecution of the Rohinygya’s ethnic Muslim minority by the fundamentalist, extremist and radical Buddhist priests in Myanmar (Burma) in that Southeast Asian country and many other human tragedies that have occurred and we could not possibly illustrated all of them in this piece of work.
Without any shadow of a doubt, what happened in South Sudan was “Genocide”– as the intention to murder people because of their group membership, even if political or economic. Genocide is generally considered one of the worst moral crimes a government- meaning any ruling authority, including that of a guerrilla group, a quasi state, a Soviet, a terrorist organization, or an occupation authority- can commit against its citizens or those it controls or a government intention to murder people because of their group membership. A second definition of genocide is known as “Democide”- the intention to murder of unarmed and helpless people for whatever reason. their group membership, even if political or economic gains.
Thus, the 2013 Juba Genocide was democide in which the GOSS should be held accountable by the international community or else failure to do so, would further escalate tensions and the war with the maximum collateral damage to the Dinka in South Sudan. Therefore, the denial or the non-recognition by the Dinka Elders and the power elite of this political reality that they have committed democide against unarmed and helpless Nuer ethnicity would tantamount to an infinite warfare in which the Dinka could become the big losers when their foreign protectors shall depart South Sudan through war fatigue, the international pressure points and the international mandates in contraventions of international law, the UN and the AU Charters in South Sudan.
Genocide…as defined by the CPPCG as the gravest and the greatest crimes against humanity that a government-means any ruling authority, including that of the guerrilla group, a quasi state, a Soviet, a terrorist organization, or an occupation authority can commit against its citizens or those it controls.
The Dinka statement above has been too emotional and we shall leave it with those who uttered it because the Dinka would not wipe out the Nuer ethnicity or nationality in South Sudan for that. It could become the reserve and it could be the Dinka that could become reduce to rubbles or ruins one way or the other; that they could ask the UNMISS, the UN and the AU for protection in the long run against the Nuer incursions with catastrophic consequences and the maximum collateral damage. They know this would happen when the war reaches the Heartland of the Dinka in Warrap and Aweil in Northern Bahr-el-Ghazel States sooner rather than later. Moreover, it was what the world learned about the Holocaust, the systematic attempt of German authorities during the World War II (WWII) (1939-1945) to kill all and every Jew no matter where found-to destroy Jews as a group. As a result, the murder between 5 to 6 million Jews became the paradigm test case of genocide and underlies the word’s origin. This episode would not happen in South Sudan compared to the scale that occurred in Europe during WWII and elsewhere in the world.
[VI] TENABLE REASONABLE ALTERNASTIVE SOLUTION
Let us hypothetically assume that we failed in opting for one of the existing systems aforementioned, we have also tenable reasonable alternative solution to achieve durable and permanent peace in South Sudan.
South Sudan could be separated into three (3) states like what happened in the Island nation of Cyprus that was divided into two (2) states, namely, Greco-Cypriots on the Westside of the Island nation of Cyprus and the Turkish-Cypriots on the Eastside of the Island nation of Cyprus and there has been no centrist path because you either be Greco-Cypriots or Turkish-Cypriots and no centrist path or neutrality. We could also draw a tenable reasonable alternative solution from Somaliland that has existed for more than twenty-year (20) as a de facto state operating normally, has a stable government that conduct international treaties and sign bilateral and multilateral agreements with national powers. Many powers and the EU in particular, have established Consulates in Hargesisa, the Capital of Somaliland, and they do business with it as usual as a functional de jure state in the international system.
Most importantly, Somaliland has been politically stable compared to the Federal Republic of Somalia (FRS) in Mogadishu. The future is bright for Somaliland because its government and people would object any returns to rejoining Somalia because of the fear of the unknown and the continuous state of political instability and the unresolved Al-Shabab factor in the Federal Republic of Somalia, including the long term foreign intervention in Mogadishu.
There are also many other alternative conflicts resolutions around the world that we could learn from in the current debacle and aggravating situation in South Sudan. For instance, we could look micro-macroscopically the test cases of Abkhazia and South Ostia that separated from the Republic of Georgia and recognized only by the Russian Federation, the test cases of the Christian Enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in the Republic of Armenia, the recent case of Crimea separated from Ukraine through a referendum to be re-annexed to the Russian Federation since it was annexed to Ukraine in 1954 by the former Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev as one of the test cases with particular interest in this proposed paper would critically examine through invariable social sciences research methods.
Meanwhile, there is a critical needs for the people of South Sudan must and ought to search for solution to put an end to the war or the war puts them to an end. It was the US President John Fitzgerald Kennedy that said the “Mankind must put an end to war or the war puts mankind to an end.”
As stated by the Dinka renegades, they could not wipe out the Nuer ethnicity because that could further escalate the crisis or the tribal warfare or as if a civil war to a dangerous twilight zone in South Sudan. Historically, the Dinka never defeated the Nuer and even their newly acquired imported arms from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the military support from Yuri Museveni of Uganda, including Sudan rebels, they could not wipe the Nuer out. The Nuer people with vast oilfields and gas fields and critical strategic minerals and raw materials, they could reciprocate the new arms supplied by the PRC to Juba. At the end of the day, the PRC would become the big loser and Salva Kiir’s regime would surely demise sooner rather than later. It’s only a matter of time and space; it would tumble and crumble to pieces like the Berlin Wall and followed by the demise of the former Soviet Union.
In despite of huge arms supplied by the PRC in exchange for the illegally mortgaged oil revenue, they have been defeated and large quantities of the newly arms supplied by China have already been captured in larges quantities from the SPLA and its militias. We have known now that Chinese Arms Industry (CAI) is not the best, but the poorest quality of arms production in the world. The Western world and the US in particular could benefit a heck of lot from the different types of Chinese weapons captured by the guerilla or rebels forces from the SPLA in recent weeks and months. Therefore, we do not want to waste time, money and energy on the uttered emotional statements uttered by mad and sick people who do not know the art of war.
The current situation on the ground, could speak for itself. We have proven beyond a reasonable doubt, that the ferocious fighting Nuers are not fighting the Dinka SPLA forces and its militias, but foreign forces from Uganda, the Great Lakes Region and East Africa regions, including mercenaries from Sudan (JEM, SRF and SPLA-N) supplied by both Kampala-Juba against Khartoum that have been already killed in large numbers and captured in large numbers as well and have confessed in series of interrogations to the rebel forces that they have been paid big money by Juba to fight against the South rebel forces and against Khartoum government led by President Hassan Omer Al-Bashir that both Salva Kiir and Museveni have vowed to overthrow by any means necessary.
Separation of South Sudan into three (3) states would not be the end of the quest for the right to self-determination saga by any collective groups of “all peoples” who feel that they have been marginalized and denied representation and participation in the political process of the existing state. Basically, the right to self-determination is an infinite inalienable God’s given right to “all peoples” that no government could take way or deprive from any collective and cohesive groups “any peoples” without ant résistance to exercise this right o self-determination as they would deem fit.
South Sudanese should be mindful not overstepping or to ignoring this process because they exercised this right and separated from the mother country- The Republic of Sudan (ROS) in 2011. It was not the end of the right to self-determination though, but it was the beginning of a continuous and infinite new sojourn to attain this right by “All peoples” as stipulated in Articles 2:7 and 52 respectively, in the UN Charter and guaranteed to all people under international law, treaties, protocols and mandates under the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution 1514 (XV) of 8 December 1960. As an academic expert in the field, I think that with the current situation in South Sudan has killed young Dinka men for raison d’être, it would be probable and realistic that some Dinka Communities would opt for the right to self-determination because the Dinka Community is not homogeneous, but heterogeneous compared to the Nuer Community in South Sudan, Nuer-Ethiopia in Southwestern Ethiopia Region#12 of Gambela Illubabrbor. And the Republic of Sudan along Sudan-South Sudan border of 2,800-3,000 Kilometers. It would not be only the people of Greater Upper region that would venture to pursue this cause of action. Many other marginalized groups would follow the people of Greater Upper Nile region in South Sudan in this politico-legal right guaranteed to “all peoples” under the UN resolution 1514 (XV) of 14 December 1960 and as stipulated in Articles 2:7 and 52 respectively, in the UN Charter.
The people of Greater Upper Nile have already unanimously decided and agreed to fight for the right to self-determination as a right to guaranteed to “all peoples” under international law and as clearly stipulated in Articles 2:7 and 52 respectively, in the UN Charter.. This would not be the end of the world if South Sudan would be divided as a tenable reasonable alternative solution decided through the collective majority of the people of each region. It is also one way of ending the continuous bloodshed.
Neither the Dinka nor the Nuer could make it to co-exist in one heterogeneous multiparty democracy. If the Dinka Bor and Twic Dinka in southern Bor County in particular, if they wish to immigrate to rejoin their kin and kith, they could cross over to the west bank of the Nile for that. However, if they wish to co-exist with the Murle, the Nuer, the Chollo (Shilluk) counterparts and others, they would have no problems because their rights as a peculiar ethnic minority would be guaranteed by the Constitution and bylaws of the would-be new state.
Another delicate problem would be the test case of of Abilang as Dinka Padang who have joined Salva Kiir’s side and committed massacres against the Nuer and the Chollo (Shilluk) people in northern Upper Nile State. We shall have a simple law, rule and regulation that those who have been against should be exit or out and those that with us should be within us”. We cannot any longer afford to live, eat, dine, dance and co-habit with the enemy less under one roof. We should keep our enemies at an armed length. This is the political side of it, but we shall and will frame it in the constitution, bylaws and regulations of the would-be new state. Where would the Abilang go at the end of this war?
Again, if they wish to immigrate to Bahr-el-Ghazel region, they would be given a clear free passage through the UN and the IOM corridors if they would opt to do in exchange for the Nuer-Dinka speakers (Atot) and the Counties east of Lakes State) in Lakes States and in northeastern of Warrap State. Or if they would opt to remain in Greater Upper Nile region, their rights would also be guaranteed as a peculiar ethnic minority. We would make sure that serious demographic changes would take place at the end of this war like Ukraine crisis in South Sudan.
The majority would not become or act negatively sophisticated compared to the fundamentalist, extremist and radical Buddhist clerics in Myanmar (Burma) against the Rohingya’s ethnic Muslim minority and the most prosecuted ethnicity in that Southeast Asian country and the Karan’s people in Thailand.
The majority shall rule with minority rights to be protected, guaranteed representation and participation in the political process by the Constitution and bylaws in the would-be new state or an autonomous region like in Kurdistan-Iraq. They would be the only ones to undertake any options either immigrate or to remain in Greater Upper Nile regions with all legal and citizenship rights would be guaranteed to them as a peculiar ethnic minority.
Professor/Ambassador David De Chand can be reached at email@example.com
The statements, comments, or opinions published by Nyamilepedia are solely those of their respective authors, which do not necessarily represent the views held by the moderators of Nyamilepedia. The veracity of any claims made are the responsibility of the writer(s), and not the staff and the management of Nyamilepedia.
Nyamilepdeia reserves the right to moderate, publish or delete a post without warning or consultation with the author(s). To publish your article, contact our editorial team at firstname.lastname@example.org