By Lual Magok,
June 05, 2014(Nyamilepedia) — When you look at recent mass defection of the senior influential Political, Military and the SPLM Party leadership, you can easily understand the challenges and difficulties the current regime under Cde Salva Kiir is undergoing and potential high risk associated with the mass defection of senior influential figures from all three regions in the country.
The mass defection is clear indication of serious frustration and dissatisfaction among the political and military leadership who had been and still serving under the leadership of Salva Kiir for the past nearly 10 years without our clear political agenda.
The wide spread of corruption , tribalism and nepotism together with non delivery of the basic services to the people who are represented by those politicians during past 10 years put them at the risk of ending their political career because citizens viewed them as failed political leaders in their communities.
The mass defection is also indicators that those politicians have been forcing themselves to work under pressure because fear and lack of other political party which ready to working for change and transformation of the country to the better preferred system.
The mass defection is also showing that , many citizens in the country are losing trust and confidents on the current regime and they may had been waiting for time and opportunity to be part of the change to the existing system.
The Mass defection from all three regions is an indication for potential full scale war and extension of the conflict to greater Bhar elgazal and Greater Equatoria region which had been little bit stable for the past 5 months of the conflict.
The Defection of Gen Dau Aturjong from Greater Bhar elgazal to rebel movement clearly indicate real shift of the ongoing crisis from tribal to political one. This will make it had for the Gen Paul Malong and Gen Salva Kiir to mobilize the youth from Aweil to fight Gen Dau as it had been business that promoted Gen Paul to the position of General Chief of Staff to command his own Dinka militias against Nuer rebellion.
The endorsement of the rebel position paper on federalism by the greater Equatoria region leadership who are with government and in opposition is putting the current government on high political pressure not only from the rebel but also from the internal Equatoria front who has accepted and endorsed the federalism as the only best gift the rebellion has brought to them.
The mass defection of influential figures from all three regions and all tribes to the rebel movement is an indication that, the rebellion has now formally started with clear political agenda to change the current regime under Cde Salva Kiir by all means available at their disposal and all cost.
The question is does this mass defection within the Army, SPLM Party and Government leadership an indication for the fall of the current regime under Cde Salva Kiir?
If you look at the above mentioned few indicators, you can answer without any reservation that, the regime of Cde Salva Kiir is already losing the ground at the National, Regional and International levels due to the atrocities committed between 16-18/12/2013 at the watchful eyes of all regional and International powers by militias who act in very hostile manner against innocent people whom H.E Salva Kiir are suppose to be ruling as president this nation.
You also formally concluded that , most of the politicians are not willing to be part of the dark history of the country and they understood that the regime of Salva Kiir has no safe landing ground and the mass defection is clear sign that , the regime is already coming to an end no matter how long it may take .
You can also know in Africa politics , politicians are like fishes , during rainy seasons most of the fishes always move to high ground with the water and when the water start returning to the river , the clever fishes usually moved back with water to the river and the foolish one will keep waiting till water dry up and become victim of the situation .The second example is grazing cattle’s , when the shepherd release their cows in morning to the grazing field and when the evening come , majority of cows will start returning back to the village whether with shepherd or without him and the foolish cows will be the one to remain at the grazing field and become meat of the day to lions and hyenas.
The mass defection of politicians from the regime in juba should be taken as very clear indication that, politicians has critically analysis the political context and situation in the country and they come out with answer that Government of Salva Kiir is coming to an end sooner or later .As a result they should start looking for what is the next potential regime and the has to take quick decision to defect to be part of the upcoming regime and abandon the dead one for their political survival.
The mass defection of the leadership of Army, Politicians and Party members to the rebel movement is best indication for the political shift and potential total collapse or fall of the current regime either through peaceful transfer of power or removal by military means.
The above indicators clearly shown that, no matter how long it may take the current regime under Cde Salva Kiir is losing legitimacy and is already coming to an end. The people who still put their survival on the current regime should start to preparing themselves for worse cases scenarios or they will be caught in situation like foolish fishes who waited till water dry up or foolish cows who never know that evening has come and remain at the grassing field and become victim of the situation.
It would be good for Cde Salva Kiir to work out peaceful power transfer through developing sustainable phasing out strategy in order to regain trust and confident of the people of south Sudan , regional and International powers to maintain respect like any other leader who compromise their chairs for interest of the county and it is people.
It is not to let for H.E. Salva Kiir to take courage like and follow the pass taken by H.E. Dr. Riek Machar to handover the Presidency to the people of South Sudan and ask for the forgiveness from victims and family of those who lost their love one during this senseless conflict and he can become hero.
I believe people of the South Sudan, Regional and International power will forgive him, though the history of this country may not do the same
The writer is concern south Sudanese and Master of International Relations and Diplomacy Researchers and can be reach via firstname.lastname@example.org