Insider’s View: Why Rebels Will Defeat Kiir In April!
By Mak Banguot Gok
March 31, 204(Nyamilepedia) — The revolution aims at stopping the civil population from deserting their land which exposes them to extreme poverty. Also, to reduce the economic and political impact which war prolonged given the fact that every South Sudanese who took up arms against Salva Kiir’s government did so in self-defence and rejection of poorly performing president who humiliated hope of the new nation.
Therefore, he should go and give chance to another leader who knows what to do for this country.
Even those who have not yet joined the military fight are tired of a poor and corrupt government.
All South Sudanese with exception of some individuals (antagonists) have rejected Salva Kiir.
It would have been safer to choose democratic principles of transferring power amongst the leaders if Salva Kiir was willing to allow others compete democratically.
If he had dishonoured all the opportunistic advices which led him to this hell, there would have been no death and mass displacement of innocent civilians from their homes.
Vulnerable South Sudanese would have not escaped their land to seek for refuge in neighbouring countries.
No one opted for war and more killing of innocent civilians; no one wishes for our hard-won independence spoils at its infancy; no one want to pleasure to all those who used to criticize our ability to govern ourselves.
All this is determined by how we embrace the principle of democracy at the early stage of our nation’s creation.
Dictatorship has no place in the new world; we must reject its tendency.
Peace after December 2013 should not be restored at the expense of the Nuer tribe.
Mass killing of innocent Nuer civilians in Juba, destruction of homes and economic livelihood in Juba, Bentiu, Jonglei and Malakal have to be properly answered for by Kiir and his men.
Nuer-lead Revolution versus Dinka-lead government cannot be crushed with money and mercenaries without the real people who are committed to protecting the government.
Even if all the jobless idle delinquents of the Easter African cities round-up and join up in fights against the Revolutionary force in defence of Salva Kiir, it won’t prevent the rebels from toppling the corrupt government in Juba anytime.
Every well-informed South Sudanese citizen is aware of the genesis of this current military conflict even before December 2013.
It was started as a political competition for the top job between Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar.
Unfortunately, the portion of Juba Massacre between December 15-20, 2013, of the Nuer civilians by Salva Kiir’s armed militias (Gelweeng) have combined double standards to fight the government by any Nuer and, also not to allow the same people lead the country in whatever the cries for peace might be.
Before the incident, Nuers did not know that the armed militias were purposely trained to commit such atrocities when the quest for Salva’s change arises.
Salva Kiir repeatedly admitted the formation of a private army a head of December 15, incident.
The same President admitted the killing innocent Nuer civilians 72 hours after the fighting breakout.
He (Salva) has lately condemned the deliberate killing and said ”those who committed crimes against humanity in my support should know that they greatly damaged my reputation as a person and head of government” and, there he supposed to resign if he knew that, he is already damaged.
At these levels, to convince Nuer and other affected communities not to fight Salva and his aliens, who involve in human rights violations and crimes against humanity; while Salva Kiir remains the president of South Sudan is, unfortunate.
It cannot work whatsoever.
Conversely, if Warrap and Awiel, the maternal and paternal home towns of Salva Kiir are still relatively peaceful and others are facing trauma of their own making, fighting will continue in one way or another.
President Salva Kiir needs to revive his rhetoric to fight the rebels beyond April because of the rain to make a balance between the revolutionary army and the dissident alien forces of UPDF, JEM, SPLM/N and the said government soldiers.
From April, there will be no trench warfare, no heavy machine guns mounted on land locomotives to scare civil population, no tanks of both types will move on muddy soil of the greater Upper Nile region.
Also, these coming months, Salva will cease paying his army.
The money from oil will remain untouchable and, therefore, it will benefit neither the Revolution.
Bentiu is engulfed through all directions by rivers and swamps which will make it difficult for government dissident soldiers’ to defend or advance.
Upper Nile state will be controlled through all directions and there will be no security threat to our movement there.
Oil resources which produce 99% and the oil money will be partly in the hands of the Revolutionary Army (SPLM/A/IO) or, the operation will stop completely from April in all the fields.
No more resistance during summer.
No oil money, no more recruitment of innocents into an already tribalised government system.
Refugee hexodes will hit Salva’s government as many from Bhar El-Ghazel will face mass displacement if they insist on loyalty to Salva Kiir.
In summer, Salva Kiir will not fight the war and at the same time, feed displaced civilians.
Given the level of water on the ground, there will be no heavy machine guns mounted on locomotives, the trench warfare will be paralysed in many places, no tanks, supplies will be limited because of the security situation in the areas.
That is how our force will kick out this government.
Mak Banguot Gok
SPLA/M/In Opposition /Youth Desk/Public
Communication Officer Malakal/Upper Nile State