South Sudan will almost certainly continue to face ethnic conflict, resource constraints, and rampant corruption in 2014. Juba may lose donors and assistance from the International community!
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testifies before the House Select Intelligence Committee in Washington, D.C., on April 11, 2013.
January 4, 2014[US, National Intelligence] — A report from the United States Intelligence Worldwide Assessment, says president Kiir, who is currently facing a military struggle by his former vice president Dr. Riek Machar, shall move on with his “dictatorial” tactic of reigning on dissent and any peace process shall take long.
“President Kiir will likely continue his authoritarian approach to running the country and dealing with opposition groups; any peace process will likely be slow despite continued attacks by anti-government forces,” Part of the report says.
Late last year, Kiir accused Machar of masterminding a plot to overthrow his government a charge the latter dismissed and instead accused Kiir of staging a scenario to clamp on opposition.
The report presented by the director of national intelligence, James Clapper, to the Senate select committee also shows that the government will not easily govern areas out of capital Juba or provide basic public goods since they shall be having limited control over the areas.
Part of the Report On South Sudan
South Sudan will almost certainly continue to face ethnic conflict, resource constraints, and rampant corruption in 2014.
Widespread clashes across South Sudan in late 2013 will make economic recovery difficult.
Without a cessation of hostilities and a stable peace process, Juba will also struggle to rebound in 2014 because international partners will be more reluctant to invest after the emergency evacuation of foreign diplomats in December of 2013 and an increasingly precarious security environment across the country.
Additionally, President Kiir will likely continue his authoritarian approach to running the country and dealing with opposition groups; any peace process will likely be slow and continue despite continued attacks by anti-government forces.
Ethnic conflict in Jonglei will likely continue as the South Sudanese military faces internal divisions and threats from multiple rebel groups.
We assess that Juba will continue to rely on assistance from the international community, but might lose donor funding following its heavy handed approach to suppressing political opposition groups in late 2013 and it might be conditioned on any peace process.
The oil fields, South Sudan’s main source of revenue, might be threatened by antigovernment forces, thereby decreasing or halting production.
The South Sudanese government will also struggle to govern regions outside of the capital and provide basic public goods. South Sudan’s economy suffered significant setbacks after Juba shut down oil production early in 2012.
For more:
World Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community.
